USGS seismic monitoring shows no magnitude 7.0 or greater earthquake worldwide since the M7.4 event 126 km west-northwest of Ternate, Indonesia, on April 1, 2026, at a shallow 35 km depth near a subduction interface. This follows a M7.3 quake 48 km east-northeast of Luganville, Vanuatu, on March 30, and a M7.5 near Tonga on March 24—all in the Pacific Ring of Fire, where most great quakes occur due to tectonic plate convergence. Globally, USGS records average 15-20 such events yearly, with current activity at baseline levels and no anomalous aftershock sequences or strain signals indicating imminent large ruptures. Inherent unpredictability limits short-term forecasts; traders should watch real-time USGS feeds for updates, as resolution depends on official moment magnitude confirmations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnother 7.0 or above earthquake by...?
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by...?
$17,106 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
April 7
<1%
April 15
22%
April 30
64%
$17,106 Vol.
April 7
$6,329 Vol.
<1%
April 15
$9,959 Vol.
22%
April 30
$817 Vol.
64%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if one or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the month following resolution time or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.USGS seismic monitoring shows no magnitude 7.0 or greater earthquake worldwide since the M7.4 event 126 km west-northwest of Ternate, Indonesia, on April 1, 2026, at a shallow 35 km depth near a subduction interface. This follows a M7.3 quake 48 km east-northeast of Luganville, Vanuatu, on March 30, and a M7.5 near Tonga on March 24—all in the Pacific Ring of Fire, where most great quakes occur due to tectonic plate convergence. Globally, USGS records average 15-20 such events yearly, with current activity at baseline levels and no anomalous aftershock sequences or strain signals indicating imminent large ruptures. Inherent unpredictability limits short-term forecasts; traders should watch real-time USGS feeds for updates, as resolution depends on official moment magnitude confirmations.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if one or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the month following resolution time or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the month following resolution time or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Market Opened: Apr 2, 2026, 6:25 PM ET
Volume
$17,106End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Apr 2, 2026, 6:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if one or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the month following resolution time or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.USGS seismic monitoring shows no magnitude 7.0 or greater earthquake worldwide since the M7.4 event 126 km west-northwest of Ternate, Indonesia, on April 1, 2026, at a shallow 35 km depth near a subduction interface. This follows a M7.3 quake 48 km east-northeast of Luganville, Vanuatu, on March 30, and a M7.5 near Tonga on March 24—all in the Pacific Ring of Fire, where most great quakes occur due to tectonic plate convergence. Globally, USGS records average 15-20 such events yearly, with current activity at baseline levels and no anomalous aftershock sequences or strain signals indicating imminent large ruptures. Inherent unpredictability limits short-term forecasts; traders should watch real-time USGS feeds for updates, as resolution depends on official moment magnitude confirmations.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if one or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the month following resolution time or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the month following resolution time or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$17,106End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Apr 2, 2026, 6:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...USGS seismic monitoring shows no magnitude 7.0 or greater earthquake worldwide since the M7.4 event 126 km west-northwest of Ternate, Indonesia, on April 1, 2026, at a shallow 35 km depth near a subduction interface. This follows a M7.3 quake 48 km east-northeast of Luganville, Vanuatu, on March 30, and a M7.5 near Tonga on March 24—all in the Pacific Ring of Fire, where most great quakes occur due to tectonic plate convergence. Globally, USGS records average 15-20 such events yearly, with current activity at baseline levels and no anomalous aftershock sequences or strain signals indicating imminent large ruptures. Inherent unpredictability limits short-term forecasts; traders should watch real-time USGS feeds for updates, as resolution depends on official moment magnitude confirmations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions