Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 90% implied probability to no magnitude 9.0+ earthquake occurring before 2027, reflecting the extreme rarity of such megathrust events—globally about one every 20–50 years, with the last being Japan's 2011 Tōhoku quake at 9.1 Mw—and the absence of precursory seismic swarms or strain buildup signaling an imminent rupture in key subduction zones like Cascadia or Nankai Trough. USGS monitoring shows no M9+ quakes since 2011, with 2025–2026's largest at M7.5 near Tonga; recent studies, including February 2026 Cascadia stress tests revealing fault variability and January fluid dynamics research, underscore long-term risks (e.g., 10–15% M9+ chance in 50 years) but no short-term triggers. Continuous USGS real-time data updates remain the key watchpoint through year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
$177,415 Vol.
$177,415 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$177,415 Vol.
$177,415 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 90% implied probability to no magnitude 9.0+ earthquake occurring before 2027, reflecting the extreme rarity of such megathrust events—globally about one every 20–50 years, with the last being Japan's 2011 Tōhoku quake at 9.1 Mw—and the absence of precursory seismic swarms or strain buildup signaling an imminent rupture in key subduction zones like Cascadia or Nankai Trough. USGS monitoring shows no M9+ quakes since 2011, with 2025–2026's largest at M7.5 near Tonga; recent studies, including February 2026 Cascadia stress tests revealing fault variability and January fluid dynamics research, underscore long-term risks (e.g., 10–15% M9+ chance in 50 years) but no short-term triggers. Continuous USGS real-time data updates remain the key watchpoint through year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Market Opened: Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ET
Volume
$177,415End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 90% implied probability to no magnitude 9.0+ earthquake occurring before 2027, reflecting the extreme rarity of such megathrust events—globally about one every 20–50 years, with the last being Japan's 2011 Tōhoku quake at 9.1 Mw—and the absence of precursory seismic swarms or strain buildup signaling an imminent rupture in key subduction zones like Cascadia or Nankai Trough. USGS monitoring shows no M9+ quakes since 2011, with 2025–2026's largest at M7.5 near Tonga; recent studies, including February 2026 Cascadia stress tests revealing fault variability and January fluid dynamics research, underscore long-term risks (e.g., 10–15% M9+ chance in 50 years) but no short-term triggers. Continuous USGS real-time data updates remain the key watchpoint through year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$177,415End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 90% implied probability to no magnitude 9.0+ earthquake occurring before 2027, reflecting the extreme rarity of such megathrust events—globally about one every 20–50 years, with the last being Japan's 2011 Tōhoku quake at 9.1 Mw—and the absence of precursory seismic swarms or strain buildup signaling an imminent rupture in key subduction zones like Cascadia or Nankai Trough. USGS monitoring shows no M9+ quakes since 2011, with 2025–2026's largest at M7.5 near Tonga; recent studies, including February 2026 Cascadia stress tests revealing fault variability and January fluid dynamics research, underscore long-term risks (e.g., 10–15% M9+ chance in 50 years) but no short-term triggers. Continuous USGS real-time data updates remain the key watchpoint through year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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