Official observations from the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport weather station—the market's authoritative resolution source—have recorded a peak temperature of 28°C earlier today, driving the 99.8% market-implied probability for this outcome amid partly cloudy skies, high humidity, and moderating sea breezes characteristic of Shenzhen's subtropical climate. Short-range forecast models from meteorological services aligned with highs around 28–29°C (82–85°F), but real-time data confirms no exceedance, consistent with mid-April climatological norms averaging 26°C daily highs. Trader sentiment reflects this skin-in-the-game consensus on observational certainty. A realistic challenge would require an improbable late-afternoon heat burst from sudden clearing and subsidence, though current trajectories and diminishing solar heating make it unlikely; final China Meteorological Administration daily summary expected post-midnight.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Shenzhen on April 11?
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on April 11?
28°C 99.8%
29°C <1%
30°C <1%
31°C <1%
$155,770 Vol.
$155,770 Vol.
Apr 11, 2026
28°C
100%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C or higher
<1%
28°C 99.8%
29°C <1%
30°C <1%
31°C <1%
$155,770 Vol.
$155,770 Vol.
Apr 11, 2026
28°C
$35,044 Vol.
100%
29°C
$8,655 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$7,462 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$13,826 Vol.
<1%
32°C or higher
$14,054 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official observations from the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport weather station—the market's authoritative resolution source—have recorded a peak temperature of 28°C earlier today, driving the 99.8% market-implied probability for this outcome amid partly cloudy skies, high humidity, and moderating sea breezes characteristic of Shenzhen's subtropical climate. Short-range forecast models from meteorological services aligned with highs around 28–29°C (82–85°F), but real-time data confirms no exceedance, consistent with mid-April climatological norms averaging 26°C daily highs. Trader sentiment reflects this skin-in-the-game consensus on observational certainty. A realistic challenge would require an improbable late-afternoon heat burst from sudden clearing and subsidence, though current trajectories and diminishing solar heating make it unlikely; final China Meteorological Administration daily summary expected post-midnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 7, 2026, 12:32 AM ET
Volume
$155,770End Date
Apr 11, 2026Market Opened
Apr 7, 2026, 12:32 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official observations from the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport weather station—the market's authoritative resolution source—have recorded a peak temperature of 28°C earlier today, driving the 99.8% market-implied probability for this outcome amid partly cloudy skies, high humidity, and moderating sea breezes characteristic of Shenzhen's subtropical climate. Short-range forecast models from meteorological services aligned with highs around 28–29°C (82–85°F), but real-time data confirms no exceedance, consistent with mid-April climatological norms averaging 26°C daily highs. Trader sentiment reflects this skin-in-the-game consensus on observational certainty. A realistic challenge would require an improbable late-afternoon heat burst from sudden clearing and subsidence, though current trajectories and diminishing solar heating make it unlikely; final China Meteorological Administration daily summary expected post-midnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$155,770End Date
Apr 11, 2026Market Opened
Apr 7, 2026, 12:32 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Official observations from the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport weather station—the market's authoritative resolution source—have recorded a peak temperature of 28°C earlier today, driving the 99.8% market-implied probability for this outcome amid partly cloudy skies, high humidity, and moderating sea breezes characteristic of Shenzhen's subtropical climate. Short-range forecast models from meteorological services aligned with highs around 28–29°C (82–85°F), but real-time data confirms no exceedance, consistent with mid-April climatological norms averaging 26°C daily highs. Trader sentiment reflects this skin-in-the-game consensus on observational certainty. A realistic challenge would require an improbable late-afternoon heat burst from sudden clearing and subsidence, though current trajectories and diminishing solar heating make it unlikely; final China Meteorological Administration daily summary expected post-midnight.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions