Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 35% implied probability to a 15°C high in Madrid on April 13, edging out 16°C at 32%, amid AEMET's latest forecast and ECMWF/GFS ensemble means clustering tightly around these values following a sharp cooldown from 28°C on April 10. This shift stems from an Atlantic front ushering cooler maritime air, northerly winds, and increased cloud cover that limits solar insolation and daytime heating, contrasting April's climatological average of 18–19°C. Differentiating factors include subtle model divergences on frontal timing—earlier clearing favors 16°C via enhanced boundary-layer mixing, while persistent overcast pins it at 15°C—highlighting inherent short-range forecast uncertainty. Watch AEMET's afternoon update and tomorrow's 00Z ECMWF run for potential refinements before resolution at Adolfo Suárez Madrid–Barajas Airport.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Madrid on April 13?
Highest temperature in Madrid on April 13?
15°C 35%
16°C 31%
17°C 16%
14°C 12.6%
NEW
NEW
Apr 13, 2026
13°C or below
6%
14°C
13%
15°C
35%
16°C
31%
17°C
16%
18°C
7%
19°C
2%
20°C
1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C or higher
<1%
15°C 35%
16°C 31%
17°C 16%
14°C 12.6%
NEW
NEW
Apr 13, 2026
13°C or below
$757 Vol.
6%
14°C
$557 Vol.
13%
15°C
$363 Vol.
35%
16°C
$318 Vol.
31%
17°C
$575 Vol.
16%
18°C
$602 Vol.
7%
19°C
$540 Vol.
2%
20°C
$447 Vol.
1%
21°C
$543 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$515 Vol.
<1%
23°C or higher
$1,062 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 35% implied probability to a 15°C high in Madrid on April 13, edging out 16°C at 32%, amid AEMET's latest forecast and ECMWF/GFS ensemble means clustering tightly around these values following a sharp cooldown from 28°C on April 10. This shift stems from an Atlantic front ushering cooler maritime air, northerly winds, and increased cloud cover that limits solar insolation and daytime heating, contrasting April's climatological average of 18–19°C. Differentiating factors include subtle model divergences on frontal timing—earlier clearing favors 16°C via enhanced boundary-layer mixing, while persistent overcast pins it at 15°C—highlighting inherent short-range forecast uncertainty. Watch AEMET's afternoon update and tomorrow's 00Z ECMWF run for potential refinements before resolution at Adolfo Suárez Madrid–Barajas Airport.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 9, 2026, 12:37 AM ET
Volume
$6,220End Date
Apr 13, 2026Market Opened
Apr 9, 2026, 12:37 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 35% implied probability to a 15°C high in Madrid on April 13, edging out 16°C at 32%, amid AEMET's latest forecast and ECMWF/GFS ensemble means clustering tightly around these values following a sharp cooldown from 28°C on April 10. This shift stems from an Atlantic front ushering cooler maritime air, northerly winds, and increased cloud cover that limits solar insolation and daytime heating, contrasting April's climatological average of 18–19°C. Differentiating factors include subtle model divergences on frontal timing—earlier clearing favors 16°C via enhanced boundary-layer mixing, while persistent overcast pins it at 15°C—highlighting inherent short-range forecast uncertainty. Watch AEMET's afternoon update and tomorrow's 00Z ECMWF run for potential refinements before resolution at Adolfo Suárez Madrid–Barajas Airport.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$6,220End Date
Apr 13, 2026Market Opened
Apr 9, 2026, 12:37 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 35% implied probability to a 15°C high in Madrid on April 13, edging out 16°C at 32%, amid AEMET's latest forecast and ECMWF/GFS ensemble means clustering tightly around these values following a sharp cooldown from 28°C on April 10. This shift stems from an Atlantic front ushering cooler maritime air, northerly winds, and increased cloud cover that limits solar insolation and daytime heating, contrasting April's climatological average of 18–19°C. Differentiating factors include subtle model divergences on frontal timing—earlier clearing favors 16°C via enhanced boundary-layer mixing, while persistent overcast pins it at 15°C—highlighting inherent short-range forecast uncertainty. Watch AEMET's afternoon update and tomorrow's 00Z ECMWF run for potential refinements before resolution at Adolfo Suárez Madrid–Barajas Airport.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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