Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a near-certain 100% implied probability to Beijing's highest temperature on April 11 reaching 24°C or below, driven by observational data from the China Meteorological Administration and aligned international models showing peak readings capped in the low 20s°C amid a lingering cool air mass from early April cold fronts. This follows suppressed highs of 15°C on April 9 and around 20°C on April 10, with current late-day conditions at approximately 20°C under sunny but moderated skies, consistent with spring climatology averaging 20-22°C highs. Scenarios challenging this would require an improbable late-afternoon surge from prolonged clear skies and downslope winds, unlikely given sunset approaching and model consensus for no further intensification; final resolution awaits official end-of-day records.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Beijing on April 11?
Highest temperature in Beijing on April 11?
24°C or below 100.0%
25°C <1%
26°C <1%
27°C <1%
$96,856 Vol.
$96,856 Vol.
24°C or below
100%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
<1%
34°C or higher
<1%
24°C or below 100.0%
25°C <1%
26°C <1%
27°C <1%
$96,856 Vol.
$96,856 Vol.
24°C or below
100%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
<1%
34°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 7, 2026, 12:32 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a near-certain 100% implied probability to Beijing's highest temperature on April 11 reaching 24°C or below, driven by observational data from the China Meteorological Administration and aligned international models showing peak readings capped in the low 20s°C amid a lingering cool air mass from early April cold fronts. This follows suppressed highs of 15°C on April 9 and around 20°C on April 10, with current late-day conditions at approximately 20°C under sunny but moderated skies, consistent with spring climatology averaging 20-22°C highs. Scenarios challenging this would require an improbable late-afternoon surge from prolonged clear skies and downslope winds, unlikely given sunset approaching and model consensus for no further intensification; final resolution awaits official end-of-day records.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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