Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the U.S. Geological Survey's firm determination that magnitude 10.0 or greater earthquakes are physically impossible, as no known fault line could rupture over the required length—roughly Earth's circumference—to release such energy. The largest recorded event remains the 9.5-magnitude Valdivia quake in Chile (1960), with no seismic activity exceeding 9.0 since 2011 and none approaching 9.5 in recent decades, per USGS data up to April 2026. Moment magnitude scale limits, tied to finite tectonic plate boundaries, underpin this near-certain outlook for the timeframe through 2026. Only an unprecedented discovery of a global-scale fault or measurement revision could shift odds, though USGS monitoring shows no such indicators.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
$539,797 Vol.
$539,797 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$539,797 Vol.
$539,797 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the U.S. Geological Survey's firm determination that magnitude 10.0 or greater earthquakes are physically impossible, as no known fault line could rupture over the required length—roughly Earth's circumference—to release such energy. The largest recorded event remains the 9.5-magnitude Valdivia quake in Chile (1960), with no seismic activity exceeding 9.0 since 2011 and none approaching 9.5 in recent decades, per USGS data up to April 2026. Moment magnitude scale limits, tied to finite tectonic plate boundaries, underpin this near-certain outlook for the timeframe through 2026. Only an unprecedented discovery of a global-scale fault or measurement revision could shift odds, though USGS monitoring shows no such indicators.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Market Opened: Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ET
Volume
$539,797End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the U.S. Geological Survey's firm determination that magnitude 10.0 or greater earthquakes are physically impossible, as no known fault line could rupture over the required length—roughly Earth's circumference—to release such energy. The largest recorded event remains the 9.5-magnitude Valdivia quake in Chile (1960), with no seismic activity exceeding 9.0 since 2011 and none approaching 9.5 in recent decades, per USGS data up to April 2026. Moment magnitude scale limits, tied to finite tectonic plate boundaries, underpin this near-certain outlook for the timeframe through 2026. Only an unprecedented discovery of a global-scale fault or measurement revision could shift odds, though USGS monitoring shows no such indicators.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$539,797End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the U.S. Geological Survey's firm determination that magnitude 10.0 or greater earthquakes are physically impossible, as no known fault line could rupture over the required length—roughly Earth's circumference—to release such energy. The largest recorded event remains the 9.5-magnitude Valdivia quake in Chile (1960), with no seismic activity exceeding 9.0 since 2011 and none approaching 9.5 in recent decades, per USGS data up to April 2026. Moment magnitude scale limits, tied to finite tectonic plate boundaries, underpin this near-certain outlook for the timeframe through 2026. Only an unprecedented discovery of a global-scale fault or measurement revision could shift odds, though USGS monitoring shows no such indicators.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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