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Tech·Culture

How many SpaceX launches in April?

Market icon
Tech·Culture

How many SpaceX launches in April?

Apr 30

Apr 30

15 20%

12 15.8%

13 9%

14 9%

Polymarket

$27,798 Vol.

15 20%

12 15.8%

13 9%

14 9%

Polymarket

$27,798 Vol.

≤11

$348 Vol.

36%

12

$199 Vol.

16%

13

$3,739 Vol.

9%

14

$15,759 Vol.

9%

15

$215 Vol.

12%

16

$6,837 Vol.

10%

17 or more

$700 Vol.

4%

This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between April 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.Trader consensus favors ≤11 SpaceX launches in April at 36.3% implied probability, driven by four successful Falcon 9 missions already completed by April 11—including Starlink Group 10-58 on April 2 from SLC-40, Starlink from Vandenberg SLC-4E on April 6 and 10—setting a strong early cadence amid Starlink constellation expansion. This positions 12 launches at 15.8%, with higher tallies like 16 or 15 trailing due to pad constraints at SLC-40 and SLC-4E, plus two TBD missions (GPS III-10 and Falcon Heavy ViaSat-3) facing scheduling risks. Recent Vandenberg Starlink success on April 10 reinforced reliability, but Starship delays to May temper aggressive forecasts; key catalysts include today's Cygnus NG-24 and April 14 Starlink, where slips could cap totals below 12.

This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between April 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET.

If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
Volume
$27,798
End Date
Apr 30, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 5:14 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between April 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between April 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.Trader consensus favors ≤11 SpaceX launches in April at 36.3% implied probability, driven by four successful Falcon 9 missions already completed by April 11—including Starlink Group 10-58 on April 2 from SLC-40, Starlink from Vandenberg SLC-4E on April 6 and 10—setting a strong early cadence amid Starlink constellation expansion. This positions 12 launches at 15.8%, with higher tallies like 16 or 15 trailing due to pad constraints at SLC-40 and SLC-4E, plus two TBD missions (GPS III-10 and Falcon Heavy ViaSat-3) facing scheduling risks. Recent Vandenberg Starlink success on April 10 reinforced reliability, but Starship delays to May temper aggressive forecasts; key catalysts include today's Cygnus NG-24 and April 14 Starlink, where slips could cap totals below 12.

This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between April 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET.

If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
Volume
$27,798
End Date
Apr 30, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 5:14 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between April 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"How many SpaceX launches in April?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "≤11" at 36%, followed by "12" at 16%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 36¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 36% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "How many SpaceX launches in April?" has generated $27.8K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 24, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "How many SpaceX launches in April?," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "How many SpaceX launches in April?" is "≤11" at 36%, meaning the market assigns a 36% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "12" at 16%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "How many SpaceX launches in April?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.