An exceptionally active start to the 2026 tornado season, marked by deadly March 5–7 and March 10–12 outbreaks producing over 140 confirmed tornadoes across the Central and Midwest US per Storm Prediction Center (SPC) data, has propelled year-to-date preliminary reports to around 200–300—well above the climatological early-April average of about 100. This front-loaded activity, including EF3 tornadoes in Oklahoma and Michigan, underpins trader consensus favoring 1250+ tornadoes at 29% implied probability, aligning with long-range forecasts of 1050–1250 total. High uncertainty stems from ENSO-neutral conditions transitioning to likely El Niño by summer, historically linked to reduced tornado frequency via weaker storm-relative helicity and wind shear; key variables include May–June convective available potential energy (CAPE) levels and jet stream patterns. SPC weekly outlooks will refine risks through peak season.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many Tornadoes in the US in 2026?
How many Tornadoes in the US in 2026?
1250+ 29%
1050–1099 17%
<950 12%
1000–1049 8%
$57,235 Vol.
$57,235 Vol.
Jan 10, 2027
<950
12%
950–999
1%
1000–1049
8%
1050–1099
17%
1100–1149
7%
1150–1199
6%
1200–1249
2%
1250+
29%
1250+ 29%
1050–1099 17%
<950 12%
1000–1049 8%
$57,235 Vol.
$57,235 Vol.
Jan 10, 2027
<950
$21,004 Vol.
12%
950–999
$2,040 Vol.
1%
1000–1049
$963 Vol.
8%
1050–1099
$3,717 Vol.
17%
1100–1149
$817 Vol.
7%
1150–1199
$1,095 Vol.
6%
1200–1249
$14,423 Vol.
2%
1250+
$13,175 Vol.
29%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.An exceptionally active start to the 2026 tornado season, marked by deadly March 5–7 and March 10–12 outbreaks producing over 140 confirmed tornadoes across the Central and Midwest US per Storm Prediction Center (SPC) data, has propelled year-to-date preliminary reports to around 200–300—well above the climatological early-April average of about 100. This front-loaded activity, including EF3 tornadoes in Oklahoma and Michigan, underpins trader consensus favoring 1250+ tornadoes at 29% implied probability, aligning with long-range forecasts of 1050–1250 total. High uncertainty stems from ENSO-neutral conditions transitioning to likely El Niño by summer, historically linked to reduced tornado frequency via weaker storm-relative helicity and wind shear; key variables include May–June convective available potential energy (CAPE) levels and jet stream patterns. SPC weekly outlooks will refine risks through peak season.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Market Opened: Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ET
Volume
$57,235End Date
Jan 10, 2027Market Opened
Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.An exceptionally active start to the 2026 tornado season, marked by deadly March 5–7 and March 10–12 outbreaks producing over 140 confirmed tornadoes across the Central and Midwest US per Storm Prediction Center (SPC) data, has propelled year-to-date preliminary reports to around 200–300—well above the climatological early-April average of about 100. This front-loaded activity, including EF3 tornadoes in Oklahoma and Michigan, underpins trader consensus favoring 1250+ tornadoes at 29% implied probability, aligning with long-range forecasts of 1050–1250 total. High uncertainty stems from ENSO-neutral conditions transitioning to likely El Niño by summer, historically linked to reduced tornado frequency via weaker storm-relative helicity and wind shear; key variables include May–June convective available potential energy (CAPE) levels and jet stream patterns. SPC weekly outlooks will refine risks through peak season.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Volume
$57,235End Date
Jan 10, 2027Market Opened
Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...An exceptionally active start to the 2026 tornado season, marked by deadly March 5–7 and March 10–12 outbreaks producing over 140 confirmed tornadoes across the Central and Midwest US per Storm Prediction Center (SPC) data, has propelled year-to-date preliminary reports to around 200–300—well above the climatological early-April average of about 100. This front-loaded activity, including EF3 tornadoes in Oklahoma and Michigan, underpins trader consensus favoring 1250+ tornadoes at 29% implied probability, aligning with long-range forecasts of 1050–1250 total. High uncertainty stems from ENSO-neutral conditions transitioning to likely El Niño by summer, historically linked to reduced tornado frequency via weaker storm-relative helicity and wind shear; key variables include May–June convective available potential energy (CAPE) levels and jet stream patterns. SPC weekly outlooks will refine risks through peak season.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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