With 42 Falcon 9 launches completed in 2026 through early April—primarily Starlink missions—SpaceX maintains a pace projecting to roughly 150 total orbital attempts, driving trader consensus toward the closely matched 160-179 (36%) and 140-159 (35.4%) outcomes on Polymarket. This sentiment stems from record booster reusability, with Block 5 first stages achieving 30+ flights and 99.8% success rates, enabling near-weekly launches across sites like SLC-40 and SLC-4E despite occasional weather scrubs. Key differentiators include mid-year potential for accelerated cadence via refined turnaround times versus constraints from FAA manifests or supply chains; Starship contributions remain minimal, with Flight 12 delayed to May. Monitor upcoming Starlink deployments and regulatory updates for probability shifts.