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Climate & Science·SpaceX

How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?

Market icon
Climate & Science·SpaceX

How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?

Dec 31

Dec 31

<5 60%

5-6 14%

9-10 6.0%

7-8 5.2%

Polymarket

$430,560 Vol.

<5 60%

5-6 14%

9-10 6.0%

7-8 5.2%

Polymarket

$430,560 Vol.

<5

$82,559 Vol.

60%

5-6

$103,032 Vol.

14%

7-8

$151,142 Vol.

5%

9-10

$55,011 Vol.

8%

11-12

$3,018 Vol.

5%

13-14

$3,727 Vol.

2%

15-16

$23,654 Vol.

2%

>16

$8,418 Vol.

4%

This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome. The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices fewer than five SpaceX Starship launches reaching space in 2026 at 59% implied probability, reflecting zero flights so far this year amid repeated delays for the critical Flight 12 debut of upgraded V3 Starship and Super Heavy hardware. Elon Musk shifted the target from early April to mid-May following static fire setbacks and cryogenic testing, highlighted by Ship 39's rollout to Starbase's Massey's site on April 11. FAA approvals enabling up to 25 Boca Chica and 44 Kennedy Space Center launches per year provide regulatory runway, yet persistent mishap probes, Raptor engine refinements, and NASA Artemis timeline pressures temper expectations for high cadence. Flight 12's outcome will signal potential for mid-year ramp-up.

This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.

The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$430,560
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome. The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome. The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices fewer than five SpaceX Starship launches reaching space in 2026 at 59% implied probability, reflecting zero flights so far this year amid repeated delays for the critical Flight 12 debut of upgraded V3 Starship and Super Heavy hardware. Elon Musk shifted the target from early April to mid-May following static fire setbacks and cryogenic testing, highlighted by Ship 39's rollout to Starbase's Massey's site on April 11. FAA approvals enabling up to 25 Boca Chica and 44 Kennedy Space Center launches per year provide regulatory runway, yet persistent mishap probes, Raptor engine refinements, and NASA Artemis timeline pressures temper expectations for high cadence. Flight 12's outcome will signal potential for mid-year ramp-up.

This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.

The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$430,560
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome. The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 8 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "<5" at 60%, followed by "5-6" at 14%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 60¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 60% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?" has generated $430.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 12, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?," browse the 8 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?" is "<5" at 60%, meaning the market assigns a 60% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "5-6" at 14%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.