SpaceX's confidential SEC filing last week for a potential $1.75 trillion-plus IPO—following its early-2026 merger with xAI—has solidified trader consensus at a 90% implied probability for it claiming the largest market cap debut this year, dwarfing rivals through Starlink's explosive satellite internet growth, reusable rocket dominance, and integrated AI capabilities from xAI's Grok models. The combined entity's projected $40–80 billion raise and early June roadshow target underscore massive scale, while xAI lingers at 25.5% on pre-merger bets despite absorption. OpenAI and Anthropic trail at 3.3% and 2.5% amid Q4 IPO rumors but sub-$1 trillion valuations; others like Databricks and Stripe face execution risks and smaller footprints. Watch regulatory reviews and retail investor events as key catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedSpaceX 90%
OpenAI 3.3%
Anthropic 2.5%
Discord <1%
$1,694,255 Vol.
$1,694,255 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
SpaceX
90%
OpenAI
3%
Anthropic
3%
Discord
1%
Databricks
1%
Stripe
<1%
Kraken
<1%
Perplexity AI
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
SHEIN
<1%
Waymo
<1%
Revolut
<1%
SpaceX 90%
OpenAI 3.3%
Anthropic 2.5%
Discord <1%
$1,694,255 Vol.
$1,694,255 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
SpaceX
$204,905 Vol.
90%
OpenAI
$301,436 Vol.
3%
Anthropic
$346,420 Vol.
3%
Discord
$72,453 Vol.
1%
Databricks
$71,281 Vol.
1%
Stripe
$40,093 Vol.
<1%
Kraken
$376,751 Vol.
<1%
Perplexity AI
$55,499 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$87,588 Vol.
<1%
SHEIN
$56,847 Vol.
<1%
Waymo
$49,340 Vol.
<1%
Revolut
$31,641 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.SpaceX's confidential SEC filing last week for a potential $1.75 trillion-plus IPO—following its early-2026 merger with xAI—has solidified trader consensus at a 90% implied probability for it claiming the largest market cap debut this year, dwarfing rivals through Starlink's explosive satellite internet growth, reusable rocket dominance, and integrated AI capabilities from xAI's Grok models. The combined entity's projected $40–80 billion raise and early June roadshow target underscore massive scale, while xAI lingers at 25.5% on pre-merger bets despite absorption. OpenAI and Anthropic trail at 3.3% and 2.5% amid Q4 IPO rumors but sub-$1 trillion valuations; others like Databricks and Stripe face execution risks and smaller footprints. Watch regulatory reviews and retail investor events as key catalysts.
This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Market Opened: Feb 2, 2026, 5:32 PM ET
Volume
$1,694,255End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 2, 2026, 5:32 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.SpaceX's confidential SEC filing last week for a potential $1.75 trillion-plus IPO—following its early-2026 merger with xAI—has solidified trader consensus at a 90% implied probability for it claiming the largest market cap debut this year, dwarfing rivals through Starlink's explosive satellite internet growth, reusable rocket dominance, and integrated AI capabilities from xAI's Grok models. The combined entity's projected $40–80 billion raise and early June roadshow target underscore massive scale, while xAI lingers at 25.5% on pre-merger bets despite absorption. OpenAI and Anthropic trail at 3.3% and 2.5% amid Q4 IPO rumors but sub-$1 trillion valuations; others like Databricks and Stripe face execution risks and smaller footprints. Watch regulatory reviews and retail investor events as key catalysts.
This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Volume
$1,694,255End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 2, 2026, 5:32 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...SpaceX's confidential SEC filing last week for a potential $1.75 trillion-plus IPO—following its early-2026 merger with xAI—has solidified trader consensus at a 90% implied probability for it claiming the largest market cap debut this year, dwarfing rivals through Starlink's explosive satellite internet growth, reusable rocket dominance, and integrated AI capabilities from xAI's Grok models. The combined entity's projected $40–80 billion raise and early June roadshow target underscore massive scale, while xAI lingers at 25.5% on pre-merger bets despite absorption. OpenAI and Anthropic trail at 3.3% and 2.5% amid Q4 IPO rumors but sub-$1 trillion valuations; others like Databricks and Stripe face execution risks and smaller footprints. Watch regulatory reviews and retail investor events as key catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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