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Tech·Gemini 3

Google Gemini score on Humanity’s Last Exam by June 30?

Market icon
Tech·Gemini 3

Google Gemini score on Humanity’s Last Exam by June 30?

Mar 31

Mar 31

$289,381 Vol.

Feb 28, 2026
Polymarket

$289,381 Vol.

Polymarket

50%+

$74,397 Vol.

38%

55%+

$50,889 Vol.

18%

60%+

$17,654 Vol.

9%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard lists any Google Gemini model with a score of at least the specified score by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard https://scale.com/leaderboard/humanitys_last_exam.Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview currently holds top or near-top positions on Humanity's Last Exam leaderboards, achieving 44.7–46.4% accuracy with high-reasoning modes on the 2,500-question frontier benchmark testing expert-level reasoning across math, science, and humanities. This reflects Google's February 2026 Gemini 3 advancements, including Deep Think for complex chain-of-thought processing, outpacing OpenAI's GPT-5.4 at 41.6–44.3%. However, Meta's April 9 Muse Spark release at 50.2% has shifted competitive dynamics, highlighting rapid scaling in multimodal reasoning. With no new Gemini models since March app updates, trader sentiment hinges on potential announcements at Google I/O in May and training progress toward 50% thresholds by June 30, amid benchmark saturation risks and evaluation variances.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard lists any Google Gemini model with a score of at least the specified score by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard https://scale.com/leaderboard/humanitys_last_exam.
Volume
$289,381
End Date
Mar 31, 2026
Market Opened
Jan 29, 2026, 12:50 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard lists any Google Gemini model with a score of at least the specified score by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard https://scale.com/leaderboard/humanitys_last_exam.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard lists any Google Gemini model with a score of at least the specified score by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard https://scale.com/leaderboard/humanitys_last_exam.Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview currently holds top or near-top positions on Humanity's Last Exam leaderboards, achieving 44.7–46.4% accuracy with high-reasoning modes on the 2,500-question frontier benchmark testing expert-level reasoning across math, science, and humanities. This reflects Google's February 2026 Gemini 3 advancements, including Deep Think for complex chain-of-thought processing, outpacing OpenAI's GPT-5.4 at 41.6–44.3%. However, Meta's April 9 Muse Spark release at 50.2% has shifted competitive dynamics, highlighting rapid scaling in multimodal reasoning. With no new Gemini models since March app updates, trader sentiment hinges on potential announcements at Google I/O in May and training progress toward 50% thresholds by June 30, amid benchmark saturation risks and evaluation variances.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard lists any Google Gemini model with a score of at least the specified score by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard https://scale.com/leaderboard/humanitys_last_exam.
Volume
$289,381
End Date
Mar 31, 2026
Market Opened
Jan 29, 2026, 12:50 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard lists any Google Gemini model with a score of at least the specified score by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard https://scale.com/leaderboard/humanitys_last_exam.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Google Gemini score on Humanity’s Last Exam by June 30?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "40%+" at 100%, followed by "45%+" at 100%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Google Gemini score on Humanity’s Last Exam by June 30?" has generated $289.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 29, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Google Gemini score on Humanity’s Last Exam by June 30?," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Google Gemini score on Humanity’s Last Exam by June 30?" is "40%+" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "45%+" at 100%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Google Gemini score on Humanity’s Last Exam by June 30?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.