Recent leaks confirming OpenAI's GPT-5.5—codenamed "Spud"—has completed pretraining have driven trader consensus toward a mid-April large language model release, with market-implied odds tightly clustered around April 18 (34.5%) through April 29 (30.5%). Sam Altman's March 24 tease of "a few weeks" aligns with this window, amplified by internal sightings of the model outperforming GPT-5.4 in reasoning and coding benchmarks, though not yet matching rivals like Anthropic's Mythos. Competitive pressures from DeepSeek V4 and xAI's Grok 5 in Q2 2026 intensify urgency, but exact timing remains uncertain amid rapid training cycles noted by OpenAI's Brad Lightcap; watch for announcements ahead of potential limited enterprise rollout.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedApril 28 20%
April 30 20%
No release by April 30 12%
April 16 10%
NEW
NEW
Apr 30, 2026
April 11
1%
April 12
29%
April 13
26%
April 14
27%
April 15
12%
April 16
22%
April 17
13%
April 18
30%
April 19
28%
April 20
28%
April 21
14%
April 22
27%
April 23
33%
April 24
31%
April 25
12%
April 26
29%
April 27
27%
April 28
20%
April 29
31%
April 30
13%
No release by April 30
12%
April 28 20%
April 30 20%
No release by April 30 12%
April 16 10%
NEW
NEW
Apr 30, 2026
April 11
$40 Vol.
1%
April 12
$13 Vol.
29%
April 13
$13 Vol.
26%
April 14
$18 Vol.
27%
April 15
$16 Vol.
12%
April 16
$180 Vol.
22%
April 17
$16 Vol.
13%
April 18
$13 Vol.
30%
April 19
$16 Vol.
28%
April 20
$52 Vol.
28%
April 21
$13 Vol.
14%
April 22
$16 Vol.
27%
April 23
$13 Vol.
33%
April 24
$13 Vol.
31%
April 25
$16 Vol.
12%
April 26
$46 Vol.
29%
April 27
$16 Vol.
27%
April 28
$16 Vol.
20%
April 29
$58 Vol.
31%
April 30
$43 Vol.
13%
No release by April 30
$141 Vol.
12%
This market will resolve according to the date on which OpenAI's GPT-5.5 model is made available to the general public (ET).
GPT-5.5 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.5, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.4, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.6, GPT-5.7, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Recent leaks confirming OpenAI's GPT-5.5—codenamed "Spud"—has completed pretraining have driven trader consensus toward a mid-April large language model release, with market-implied odds tightly clustered around April 18 (34.5%) through April 29 (30.5%). Sam Altman's March 24 tease of "a few weeks" aligns with this window, amplified by internal sightings of the model outperforming GPT-5.4 in reasoning and coding benchmarks, though not yet matching rivals like Anthropic's Mythos. Competitive pressures from DeepSeek V4 and xAI's Grok 5 in Q2 2026 intensify urgency, but exact timing remains uncertain amid rapid training cycles noted by OpenAI's Brad Lightcap; watch for announcements ahead of potential limited enterprise rollout.
This market will resolve according to the date on which OpenAI's GPT-5.5 model is made available to the general public (ET).
GPT-5.5 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.5, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.4, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.6, GPT-5.7, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
GPT-5.5 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.5, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.4, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.6, GPT-5.7, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Apr 9, 2026, 5:15 PM ET
Volume
$3,021End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Apr 9, 2026, 5:15 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the date on which OpenAI's GPT-5.5 model is made available to the general public (ET).
GPT-5.5 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.5, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.4, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.6, GPT-5.7, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Recent leaks confirming OpenAI's GPT-5.5—codenamed "Spud"—has completed pretraining have driven trader consensus toward a mid-April large language model release, with market-implied odds tightly clustered around April 18 (34.5%) through April 29 (30.5%). Sam Altman's March 24 tease of "a few weeks" aligns with this window, amplified by internal sightings of the model outperforming GPT-5.4 in reasoning and coding benchmarks, though not yet matching rivals like Anthropic's Mythos. Competitive pressures from DeepSeek V4 and xAI's Grok 5 in Q2 2026 intensify urgency, but exact timing remains uncertain amid rapid training cycles noted by OpenAI's Brad Lightcap; watch for announcements ahead of potential limited enterprise rollout.
This market will resolve according to the date on which OpenAI's GPT-5.5 model is made available to the general public (ET).
GPT-5.5 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.5, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.4, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.6, GPT-5.7, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
GPT-5.5 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.5, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.4, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.6, GPT-5.7, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$3,021End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Apr 9, 2026, 5:15 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent leaks confirming OpenAI's GPT-5.5—codenamed "Spud"—has completed pretraining have driven trader consensus toward a mid-April large language model release, with market-implied odds tightly clustered around April 18 (34.5%) through April 29 (30.5%). Sam Altman's March 24 tease of "a few weeks" aligns with this window, amplified by internal sightings of the model outperforming GPT-5.4 in reasoning and coding benchmarks, though not yet matching rivals like Anthropic's Mythos. Competitive pressures from DeepSeek V4 and xAI's Grok 5 in Q2 2026 intensify urgency, but exact timing remains uncertain amid rapid training cycles noted by OpenAI's Brad Lightcap; watch for announcements ahead of potential limited enterprise rollout.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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