Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic at 88% implied probability to hold the #1 spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard with Style Control On by April 30, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's recent February launch and subsequent rapid iterations, including over 120 features shipped in Q1 2026 alone. This model has surged ahead in Elo rankings, excelling in substance-focused evaluations that prioritize reasoning and capabilities over stylistic flair, outpacing OpenAI's GPT-5.2 in coding and multitask benchmarks amid Anthropic's aggressive scaling—reportedly 5x pretraining FLOPs post-Claude 3.5. OpenAI lingers at 3.7% awaiting major GPT updates, while Google's Gemini and xAI's Grok trail due to slower release cadences. With three weeks to resolution, surprise announcements could shift dynamics, but Anthropic's momentum underscores the wisdom of crowds in these skin-in-the-game markets.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic 88%
OpenAI 3.7%
Google 2.1%
xAI 1.4%
$1,025,769 Vol.
$1,025,769 Vol.

Anthropic
88%

OpenAI
4%

2%

xAI
1%

Alibaba
1%

Moonshot
1%

DeepSeek
<1%

Z.ai
<1%

ByteDance
<1%

Amazon
<1%

Mistral
<1%

Meituan
<1%

Baidu
<1%
Anthropic 88%
OpenAI 3.7%
Google 2.1%
xAI 1.4%
$1,025,769 Vol.
$1,025,769 Vol.

Anthropic
88%

OpenAI
4%

2%

xAI
1%

Alibaba
1%

Moonshot
1%

DeepSeek
<1%

Z.ai
<1%

ByteDance
<1%

Amazon
<1%

Mistral
<1%

Meituan
<1%

Baidu
<1%
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Market Opened: Mar 20, 2026, 4:39 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic at 88% implied probability to hold the #1 spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard with Style Control On by April 30, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's recent February launch and subsequent rapid iterations, including over 120 features shipped in Q1 2026 alone. This model has surged ahead in Elo rankings, excelling in substance-focused evaluations that prioritize reasoning and capabilities over stylistic flair, outpacing OpenAI's GPT-5.2 in coding and multitask benchmarks amid Anthropic's aggressive scaling—reportedly 5x pretraining FLOPs post-Claude 3.5. OpenAI lingers at 3.7% awaiting major GPT updates, while Google's Gemini and xAI's Grok trail due to slower release cadences. With three weeks to resolution, surprise announcements could shift dynamics, but Anthropic's momentum underscores the wisdom of crowds in these skin-in-the-game markets.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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