Alibaba commands a 72% implied probability as the best Chinese AI company by April's end on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard, propelled by its Qwen3.6-Plus model's April 3 release, which topped Terminal-Bench 2.0 at 61.6 and MMMU at 86.0 for agentic coding and multimodal reasoning, alongside a stealth video AI model hitting global No. 1 on April 10. DeepSeek trails at 12.5% amid hype for its delayed V4 multimodal release—rumored for late April despite Huawei hardware setbacks—potentially challenging with a 1M-token context. Zhipu AI's GLM-5.1 (7.7%) impressed in late-March benchmarks but lags in current Elo rankings, while others like Moonshot linger below 5%. Traders watch for final-week drops before the leaderboard snapshot.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAlibaba 72%
DeepSeek 13%
Z.ai 7.8%
Moonshot 3.4%
$28,686 Vol.
$28,686 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
Alibaba
72%
DeepSeek
13%
Z.ai
8%
Moonshot
3%
ByteDance
3%
Baidu
2%
Xiaomi
2%
Meituan
<1%
Alibaba 72%
DeepSeek 13%
Z.ai 7.8%
Moonshot 3.4%
$28,686 Vol.
$28,686 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
Alibaba
$7,968 Vol.
72%
DeepSeek
$3,703 Vol.
13%
Z.ai
$3,958 Vol.
8%
Moonshot
$2,477 Vol.
3%
ByteDance
$3,309 Vol.
3%
Baidu
$2,665 Vol.
2%
Xiaomi
$2,504 Vol.
2%
Meituan
$2,114 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena score among primarily Chinese companies, based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Qualifying Chinese Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Alibaba commands a 72% implied probability as the best Chinese AI company by April's end on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard, propelled by its Qwen3.6-Plus model's April 3 release, which topped Terminal-Bench 2.0 at 61.6 and MMMU at 86.0 for agentic coding and multimodal reasoning, alongside a stealth video AI model hitting global No. 1 on April 10. DeepSeek trails at 12.5% amid hype for its delayed V4 multimodal release—rumored for late April despite Huawei hardware setbacks—potentially challenging with a 1M-token context. Zhipu AI's GLM-5.1 (7.7%) impressed in late-March benchmarks but lags in current Elo rankings, while others like Moonshot linger below 5%. Traders watch for final-week drops before the leaderboard snapshot.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena score among primarily Chinese companies, based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Qualifying Chinese Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Qualifying Chinese Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Market Opened: Apr 2, 2026, 5:56 PM ET
Volume
$28,686End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Apr 2, 2026, 5:56 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena score among primarily Chinese companies, based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Qualifying Chinese Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Alibaba commands a 72% implied probability as the best Chinese AI company by April's end on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard, propelled by its Qwen3.6-Plus model's April 3 release, which topped Terminal-Bench 2.0 at 61.6 and MMMU at 86.0 for agentic coding and multimodal reasoning, alongside a stealth video AI model hitting global No. 1 on April 10. DeepSeek trails at 12.5% amid hype for its delayed V4 multimodal release—rumored for late April despite Huawei hardware setbacks—potentially challenging with a 1M-token context. Zhipu AI's GLM-5.1 (7.7%) impressed in late-March benchmarks but lags in current Elo rankings, while others like Moonshot linger below 5%. Traders watch for final-week drops before the leaderboard snapshot.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena score among primarily Chinese companies, based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Qualifying Chinese Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Qualifying Chinese Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$28,686End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Apr 2, 2026, 5:56 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Alibaba commands a 72% implied probability as the best Chinese AI company by April's end on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard, propelled by its Qwen3.6-Plus model's April 3 release, which topped Terminal-Bench 2.0 at 61.6 and MMMU at 86.0 for agentic coding and multimodal reasoning, alongside a stealth video AI model hitting global No. 1 on April 10. DeepSeek trails at 12.5% amid hype for its delayed V4 multimodal release—rumored for late April despite Huawei hardware setbacks—potentially challenging with a 1M-token context. Zhipu AI's GLM-5.1 (7.7%) impressed in late-March benchmarks but lags in current Elo rankings, while others like Moonshot linger below 5%. Traders watch for final-week drops before the leaderboard snapshot.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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