Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 78.5% implied probability against a Discord IPO by June 30, 2026, reflecting prolonged silence since the company's confidential SEC filing in January 2026 and lack of a public S-1 prospectus or roadshow amid volatile tech markets. Underwriters Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan targeted a March debut, but no progress has materialized, compounded by Discord's monetization challenges—revenues roughly doubling to $600 million by 2024 despite 200M+ monthly active users—capping enthusiasm for higher brackets like 30B+ at just 1.4%. The <15B outcome at 16.8% aligns with the firm's last private $15 billion valuation, signaling trader skepticism on premium multiples without accelerated revenue growth. Key catalysts include potential S-1 release or Q1 2026 economic data influencing IPO timing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNo IPO by June 30, 2026 79%
<15B 16.7%
15–20B 2.8%
30B+ 1.4%
$834,036 Vol.
$834,036 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
<15B
17%
15–20B
3%
20–25B
1%
25–30B
1%
30B+
1%
No IPO by June 30, 2026
79%
No IPO by June 30, 2026 79%
<15B 16.7%
15–20B 2.8%
30B+ 1.4%
$834,036 Vol.
$834,036 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
<15B
$293,186 Vol.
17%
15–20B
$105,145 Vol.
3%
20–25B
$70,945 Vol.
1%
25–30B
$94,491 Vol.
1%
30B+
$89,756 Vol.
1%
No IPO by June 30, 2026
$180,513 Vol.
79%
This market will resolve based on Discord's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Discord’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 78.5% implied probability against a Discord IPO by June 30, 2026, reflecting prolonged silence since the company's confidential SEC filing in January 2026 and lack of a public S-1 prospectus or roadshow amid volatile tech markets. Underwriters Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan targeted a March debut, but no progress has materialized, compounded by Discord's monetization challenges—revenues roughly doubling to $600 million by 2024 despite 200M+ monthly active users—capping enthusiasm for higher brackets like 30B+ at just 1.4%. The <15B outcome at 16.8% aligns with the firm's last private $15 billion valuation, signaling trader skepticism on premium multiples without accelerated revenue growth. Key catalysts include potential S-1 release or Q1 2026 economic data influencing IPO timing.
This market will resolve based on Discord's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Discord’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Discord’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Market Opened: Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ET
Volume
$834,036End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on Discord's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Discord’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 78.5% implied probability against a Discord IPO by June 30, 2026, reflecting prolonged silence since the company's confidential SEC filing in January 2026 and lack of a public S-1 prospectus or roadshow amid volatile tech markets. Underwriters Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan targeted a March debut, but no progress has materialized, compounded by Discord's monetization challenges—revenues roughly doubling to $600 million by 2024 despite 200M+ monthly active users—capping enthusiasm for higher brackets like 30B+ at just 1.4%. The <15B outcome at 16.8% aligns with the firm's last private $15 billion valuation, signaling trader skepticism on premium multiples without accelerated revenue growth. Key catalysts include potential S-1 release or Q1 2026 economic data influencing IPO timing.
This market will resolve based on Discord's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Discord’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Discord’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Volume
$834,036End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 78.5% implied probability against a Discord IPO by June 30, 2026, reflecting prolonged silence since the company's confidential SEC filing in January 2026 and lack of a public S-1 prospectus or roadshow amid volatile tech markets. Underwriters Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan targeted a March debut, but no progress has materialized, compounded by Discord's monetization challenges—revenues roughly doubling to $600 million by 2024 despite 200M+ monthly active users—capping enthusiasm for higher brackets like 30B+ at just 1.4%. The <15B outcome at 16.8% aligns with the firm's last private $15 billion valuation, signaling trader skepticism on premium multiples without accelerated revenue growth. Key catalysts include potential S-1 release or Q1 2026 economic data influencing IPO timing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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