Market icon
Tech·Business

How many Tesla deliveries in Q2 2026?

Market icon
Tech·Business

How many Tesla deliveries in Q2 2026?

Jun 30

Jun 30

350k–375k 30%

375k–400k 27%

400k–425k 26%

425k–450k 13%

Polymarket
NEW

350k–375k 30%

375k–400k 27%

400k–425k 26%

425k–450k 13%

Polymarket
NEW

<300k

$64 Vol.

6%

300k–325k

$86 Vol.

4%

325k–350k

$67 Vol.

4%

350k–375k

$4,813 Vol.

30%

375k–400k

$107 Vol.

27%

400k–425k

$2,755 Vol.

26%

425k–450k

$165 Vol.

13%

450k–475k

$203 Vol.

5%

475k+

$64 Vol.

4%

This market will resolve according to Tesla's announced total vehicle deliveries for Q2 2026. If Tesla does not publish Q2 2026 delivery figures by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.Tesla's Q1 2026 deliveries of 358,023 vehicles—missing analyst consensus by about 7,000 units amid weak China retail sales and a 14% quarter-over-quarter drop—have anchored trader consensus around 350,000–425,000 for Q2, with implied probabilities tightly clustered at 29.5%, 26.5%, and 26.0% respectively. Production outpaced deliveries at 408,386 units, signaling inventory buildup that could support a modest seasonal rebound, though Chinese EV competition from BYD and others caps upside. Cybercab robotaxi production begins this month but ramps slowly, adding negligible volume, while Cybertruck delays to late 2026 limit contributions. Key swing factors include Q1 earnings (late April) guidance, China demand signals, and Model Y refresh momentum; resolution hinges on Tesla's official July report.

This market will resolve according to Tesla's announced total vehicle deliveries for Q2 2026.

If Tesla does not publish Q2 2026 delivery figures by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.
Volume
$8,325
End Date
Jun 30, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 3, 2026, 7:38 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to Tesla's announced total vehicle deliveries for Q2 2026. If Tesla does not publish Q2 2026 delivery figures by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.
This market will resolve according to Tesla's announced total vehicle deliveries for Q2 2026. If Tesla does not publish Q2 2026 delivery figures by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.Tesla's Q1 2026 deliveries of 358,023 vehicles—missing analyst consensus by about 7,000 units amid weak China retail sales and a 14% quarter-over-quarter drop—have anchored trader consensus around 350,000–425,000 for Q2, with implied probabilities tightly clustered at 29.5%, 26.5%, and 26.0% respectively. Production outpaced deliveries at 408,386 units, signaling inventory buildup that could support a modest seasonal rebound, though Chinese EV competition from BYD and others caps upside. Cybercab robotaxi production begins this month but ramps slowly, adding negligible volume, while Cybertruck delays to late 2026 limit contributions. Key swing factors include Q1 earnings (late April) guidance, China demand signals, and Model Y refresh momentum; resolution hinges on Tesla's official July report.

This market will resolve according to Tesla's announced total vehicle deliveries for Q2 2026.

If Tesla does not publish Q2 2026 delivery figures by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.
Volume
$8,325
End Date
Jun 30, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 3, 2026, 7:38 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to Tesla's announced total vehicle deliveries for Q2 2026. If Tesla does not publish Q2 2026 delivery figures by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"How many Tesla deliveries in Q2 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 9 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "350k–375k" at 30%, followed by "375k–400k" at 27%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 30¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 30% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"How many Tesla deliveries in Q2 2026?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Apr 3, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "How many Tesla deliveries in Q2 2026?," browse the 9 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "How many Tesla deliveries in Q2 2026?" is "350k–375k" at 30%, meaning the market assigns a 30% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "375k–400k" at 27%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "How many Tesla deliveries in Q2 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.