Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 models command the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard under Style Control On—isolating substantive reasoning from stylistic flair—with the "thinking" variant at #1 (1501 Elo) and base Opus 4.6 at #2 (1494 Elo), propelling an 82% trader consensus for Anthropic retaining the #2 spot by April 30. This dominance stems from Anthropic's April 6 release showcasing superior instruction-following and hard-prompt performance, widening the gap over Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview (#3 at 1493 Elo, 8.5% odds) and OpenAI's trailing GPT-5.4 (4.2%). Google lingers as a contender due to iterative updates, while low-odds challengers like ByteDance reflect slim upset potential absent major announcements; watch for OpenAI or xAI releases before expiry.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic 82%
Google 9%
OpenAI 4.2%
ByteDance 1.3%
$26,094 Vol.
$26,094 Vol.

Anthropic
82%

9%

OpenAI
4%

ByteDance
1%

Meituan
1%

Alibaba
<1%

Moonshot
<1%

DeepSeek
<1%

Amazon
<1%

Baidu
<1%

Z.ai
<1%

xAI
<1%

Mistral
<1%
Anthropic 82%
Google 9%
OpenAI 4.2%
ByteDance 1.3%
$26,094 Vol.
$26,094 Vol.

Anthropic
82%

9%

OpenAI
4%

ByteDance
1%

Meituan
1%

Alibaba
<1%

Moonshot
<1%

DeepSeek
<1%

Amazon
<1%

Baidu
<1%

Z.ai
<1%

xAI
<1%

Mistral
<1%
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Market Opened: Mar 20, 2026, 4:40 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 models command the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard under Style Control On—isolating substantive reasoning from stylistic flair—with the "thinking" variant at #1 (1501 Elo) and base Opus 4.6 at #2 (1494 Elo), propelling an 82% trader consensus for Anthropic retaining the #2 spot by April 30. This dominance stems from Anthropic's April 6 release showcasing superior instruction-following and hard-prompt performance, widening the gap over Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview (#3 at 1493 Elo, 8.5% odds) and OpenAI's trailing GPT-5.4 (4.2%). Google lingers as a contender due to iterative updates, while low-odds challengers like ByteDance reflect slim upset potential absent major announcements; watch for OpenAI or xAI releases before expiry.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated



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