USGS earthquake catalog data confirms zero earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or greater worldwide from April 6 through April 10, driving trader consensus to an 80% implied probability for a total of zero by April 12 close. This aligns with the global baseline seismicity rate of approximately 15-20 such events annually, or roughly 0.3 expected per week under Poisson statistics—elevated for zero given five event-free days already elapsed. Recent monitoring shows moderate activity without anomalous swarms, foreshock sequences, or elevated strain on major tectonic plate boundaries like the Ring of Fire. Continuous USGS real-time seismic feeds track developments through the remaining window, where any qualifying event would instantly shift odds amid inherent forecasting uncertainty.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many 6.5 or above earthquakes April 6 - 12?
How many 6.5 or above earthquakes April 6 - 12?
0 82%
1 15%
2 4.2%
3 <1%
$100,868 Vol.
$100,868 Vol.
Apr 12, 2026
0
82%
1
15%
2
4%
3
1%
4
<1%
5
<1%
>5
<1%
0 82%
1 15%
2 4.2%
3 <1%
$100,868 Vol.
$100,868 Vol.
Apr 12, 2026
0
$26,026 Vol.
82%
1
$24,244 Vol.
15%
2
$15,216 Vol.
4%
3
$15,640 Vol.
1%
4
$6,766 Vol.
<1%
5
$5,769 Vol.
<1%
>5
$7,208 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between April 6, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and April 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.USGS earthquake catalog data confirms zero earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or greater worldwide from April 6 through April 10, driving trader consensus to an 80% implied probability for a total of zero by April 12 close. This aligns with the global baseline seismicity rate of approximately 15-20 such events annually, or roughly 0.3 expected per week under Poisson statistics—elevated for zero given five event-free days already elapsed. Recent monitoring shows moderate activity without anomalous swarms, foreshock sequences, or elevated strain on major tectonic plate boundaries like the Ring of Fire. Continuous USGS real-time seismic feeds track developments through the remaining window, where any qualifying event would instantly shift odds amid inherent forecasting uncertainty.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between April 6, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and April 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Market Opened: Apr 3, 2026, 7:09 PM ET
Volume
$100,868End Date
Apr 12, 2026Market Opened
Apr 3, 2026, 7:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between April 6, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and April 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.USGS earthquake catalog data confirms zero earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or greater worldwide from April 6 through April 10, driving trader consensus to an 80% implied probability for a total of zero by April 12 close. This aligns with the global baseline seismicity rate of approximately 15-20 such events annually, or roughly 0.3 expected per week under Poisson statistics—elevated for zero given five event-free days already elapsed. Recent monitoring shows moderate activity without anomalous swarms, foreshock sequences, or elevated strain on major tectonic plate boundaries like the Ring of Fire. Continuous USGS real-time seismic feeds track developments through the remaining window, where any qualifying event would instantly shift odds amid inherent forecasting uncertainty.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between April 6, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and April 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$100,868End Date
Apr 12, 2026Market Opened
Apr 3, 2026, 7:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...USGS earthquake catalog data confirms zero earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or greater worldwide from April 6 through April 10, driving trader consensus to an 80% implied probability for a total of zero by April 12 close. This aligns with the global baseline seismicity rate of approximately 15-20 such events annually, or roughly 0.3 expected per week under Poisson statistics—elevated for zero given five event-free days already elapsed. Recent monitoring shows moderate activity without anomalous swarms, foreshock sequences, or elevated strain on major tectonic plate boundaries like the Ring of Fire. Continuous USGS real-time seismic feeds track developments through the remaining window, where any qualifying event would instantly shift odds amid inherent forecasting uncertainty.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions