Trader consensus strongly favors no major volcano eruption reaching Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ≥6 in 2026, with market-implied odds at 89.5%, driven by the absence of precursors at any globally monitored site according to the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program and USGS Volcano Hazards Program. As of early April 2026, 47 eruptions have occurred worldwide—typical volume, all VEI ≤4—with 40 ongoing, primarily effusive or small explosive events like Kīlauea's episodic fountaining and ash plumes from Sheveluch and Semeru. Historical data shows VEI ≥6 events occur roughly once every few decades, last at Pinatubo (1991), with no recent seismic swarms, caldera inflation, or gas spikes signaling escalation. Ongoing weekly monitoring and satellite observations provide early detection of any shifts, underscoring inherent forecasting uncertainties in rare cataclysmic events.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMajor volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?
Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?
$40,613 Vol.
$40,613 Vol.
Mar 31, 2027
$40,613 Vol.
$40,613 Vol.
Mar 31, 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Trader consensus strongly favors no major volcano eruption reaching Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ≥6 in 2026, with market-implied odds at 89.5%, driven by the absence of precursors at any globally monitored site according to the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program and USGS Volcano Hazards Program. As of early April 2026, 47 eruptions have occurred worldwide—typical volume, all VEI ≤4—with 40 ongoing, primarily effusive or small explosive events like Kīlauea's episodic fountaining and ash plumes from Sheveluch and Semeru. Historical data shows VEI ≥6 events occur roughly once every few decades, last at Pinatubo (1991), with no recent seismic swarms, caldera inflation, or gas spikes signaling escalation. Ongoing weekly monitoring and satellite observations provide early detection of any shifts, underscoring inherent forecasting uncertainties in rare cataclysmic events.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Market Opened: Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ET
Volume
$40,613End Date
Mar 31, 2027Market Opened
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Trader consensus strongly favors no major volcano eruption reaching Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ≥6 in 2026, with market-implied odds at 89.5%, driven by the absence of precursors at any globally monitored site according to the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program and USGS Volcano Hazards Program. As of early April 2026, 47 eruptions have occurred worldwide—typical volume, all VEI ≤4—with 40 ongoing, primarily effusive or small explosive events like Kīlauea's episodic fountaining and ash plumes from Sheveluch and Semeru. Historical data shows VEI ≥6 events occur roughly once every few decades, last at Pinatubo (1991), with no recent seismic swarms, caldera inflation, or gas spikes signaling escalation. Ongoing weekly monitoring and satellite observations provide early detection of any shifts, underscoring inherent forecasting uncertainties in rare cataclysmic events.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Volume
$40,613End Date
Mar 31, 2027Market Opened
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus strongly favors no major volcano eruption reaching Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ≥6 in 2026, with market-implied odds at 89.5%, driven by the absence of precursors at any globally monitored site according to the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program and USGS Volcano Hazards Program. As of early April 2026, 47 eruptions have occurred worldwide—typical volume, all VEI ≤4—with 40 ongoing, primarily effusive or small explosive events like Kīlauea's episodic fountaining and ash plumes from Sheveluch and Semeru. Historical data shows VEI ≥6 events occur roughly once every few decades, last at Pinatubo (1991), with no recent seismic swarms, caldera inflation, or gas spikes signaling escalation. Ongoing weekly monitoring and satellite observations provide early detection of any shifts, underscoring inherent forecasting uncertainties in rare cataclysmic events.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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