Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between one large volcanic eruption (40.5% implied probability) and zero (37.5%) in 2026, driven by the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program's confirmation of zero VEI ≥4 events through early April despite 47 total eruptions worldwide this year. This reflects genuine scientific uncertainty in forecasting explosive volcanism, where VEI 4+ events—ejecting 0.1 km³ or more of tephra—occur at a historical rate of roughly 0.5–1.5 annually based on global monitoring records, with higher counts rare absent clustered activity. Steady seismic and deformation data at key sites like Kīlauea and Semeru show no precursors for major escalation, though unpredictable magma recharge keeps a single event plausible; GVP weekly reports and USGS observatory updates will provide next catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?
How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?
1 41%
0 38%
2 6.2%
4 5.4%
$712,050 Vol.
$712,050 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
0
38%
1
41%
2
6%
3
1%
4
5%
5+
2%
1 41%
0 38%
2 6.2%
4 5.4%
$712,050 Vol.
$712,050 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
0
$416,224 Vol.
38%
1
$245,997 Vol.
41%
2
$19,008 Vol.
6%
3
$6,956 Vol.
1%
4
$12,278 Vol.
5%
5+
$11,586 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between one large volcanic eruption (40.5% implied probability) and zero (37.5%) in 2026, driven by the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program's confirmation of zero VEI ≥4 events through early April despite 47 total eruptions worldwide this year. This reflects genuine scientific uncertainty in forecasting explosive volcanism, where VEI 4+ events—ejecting 0.1 km³ or more of tephra—occur at a historical rate of roughly 0.5–1.5 annually based on global monitoring records, with higher counts rare absent clustered activity. Steady seismic and deformation data at key sites like Kīlauea and Semeru show no precursors for major escalation, though unpredictable magma recharge keeps a single event plausible; GVP weekly reports and USGS observatory updates will provide next catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ET
Volume
$712,050End Date
Mar 31, 2027Market Opened
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between one large volcanic eruption (40.5% implied probability) and zero (37.5%) in 2026, driven by the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program's confirmation of zero VEI ≥4 events through early April despite 47 total eruptions worldwide this year. This reflects genuine scientific uncertainty in forecasting explosive volcanism, where VEI 4+ events—ejecting 0.1 km³ or more of tephra—occur at a historical rate of roughly 0.5–1.5 annually based on global monitoring records, with higher counts rare absent clustered activity. Steady seismic and deformation data at key sites like Kīlauea and Semeru show no precursors for major escalation, though unpredictable magma recharge keeps a single event plausible; GVP weekly reports and USGS observatory updates will provide next catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Volume
$712,050End Date
Mar 31, 2027Market Opened
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between one large volcanic eruption (40.5% implied probability) and zero (37.5%) in 2026, driven by the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program's confirmation of zero VEI ≥4 events through early April despite 47 total eruptions worldwide this year. This reflects genuine scientific uncertainty in forecasting explosive volcanism, where VEI 4+ events—ejecting 0.1 km³ or more of tephra—occur at a historical rate of roughly 0.5–1.5 annually based on global monitoring records, with higher counts rare absent clustered activity. Steady seismic and deformation data at key sites like Kīlauea and Semeru show no precursors for major escalation, though unpredictable magma recharge keeps a single event plausible; GVP weekly reports and USGS observatory updates will provide next catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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