Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 92.8% implied probability to "No" for a new coronavirus pandemic in 2026, driven by the absence of any confirmed outbreaks from a novel coronavirus distinct from SARS-CoV-2, as tracked by WHO and CDC global surveillance dashboards. Recent data through early April shows robust genomic monitoring detecting only SARS-CoV-2 variants like BA.3.2 ("Cicada"), with low positivity rates around 2% in the U.S. and no pandemic-level surges or Public Health Emergency of International Concern declarations. Hybrid immunity from prior infections and updated 2025-2026 vaccines further bolsters resilience against sarbecoviruses. Weekly WHO case summaries and CDC variant reports will continue informing traders, though an undetected zoonotic spillover or surveillance lapse could challenge this outlook.