Trader consensus on Polymarket tightly clusters implied probabilities around 9–11°C for Ankara's highest temperature at Esenboğa International Airport on April 12, aligning with the Turkish State Meteorological Service's (MGM) latest forecast of a 10°C daytime maximum under very cloudy skies. This reflects an ongoing unseasonal cold front delivering northerly winds and polar air advection, following snow showers that blanketed the capital on April 11 morning and kept recent highs at 7–9°C. Differentiating factors include cloud cover persistence limiting solar insolation—favoring 9°C if overcast—or brief afternoon clearing enabling slight boundary layer warming to 11°C, as hinted in ECMWF and GFS ensemble spreads. Overnight model updates at 00Z will provide fresh guidance before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Ankara on April 12?
Highest temperature in Ankara on April 12?
10°C 34%
9°C 30%
11°C 26%
8°C 9%
$15,565 Vol.
$15,565 Vol.
4°C or below
<1%
5°C
<1%
6°C
<1%
7°C
1%
8°C
9%
9°C
30%
10°C
34%
11°C
26%
12°C
3%
13°C
1%
14°C or higher
<1%
10°C 34%
9°C 30%
11°C 26%
8°C 9%
$15,565 Vol.
$15,565 Vol.
4°C or below
<1%
5°C
<1%
6°C
<1%
7°C
1%
8°C
9%
9°C
30%
10°C
34%
11°C
26%
12°C
3%
13°C
1%
14°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 8, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket tightly clusters implied probabilities around 9–11°C for Ankara's highest temperature at Esenboğa International Airport on April 12, aligning with the Turkish State Meteorological Service's (MGM) latest forecast of a 10°C daytime maximum under very cloudy skies. This reflects an ongoing unseasonal cold front delivering northerly winds and polar air advection, following snow showers that blanketed the capital on April 11 morning and kept recent highs at 7–9°C. Differentiating factors include cloud cover persistence limiting solar insolation—favoring 9°C if overcast—or brief afternoon clearing enabling slight boundary layer warming to 11°C, as hinted in ECMWF and GFS ensemble spreads. Overnight model updates at 00Z will provide fresh guidance before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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