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Elections·Canada

University—Rosedale By-Election Winner

Market icon
Elections·Canada

University—Rosedale By-Election Winner

Danielle Martin 99.6%

Don Hodgson <1%

Imran Khan <1%

Andy D’Andrea <1%

Polymarket

$58,309 Vol.

Danielle Martin 99.6%

Don Hodgson <1%

Imran Khan <1%

Andy D’Andrea <1%

Polymarket

$58,309 Vol.

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Danielle Martin

$45,168 Vol.

100%

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Don Hodgson

$3,223 Vol.

<1%

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Imran Khan

$2,112 Vol.

<1%

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Andy D’Andrea

$2,301 Vol.

<1%

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Leslie Bory

$697 Vol.

<1%

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Bill Whatcott

$691 Vol.

<1%

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Serena Purdy

$848 Vol.

<1%

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Andrew Massey

$691 Vol.

<1%

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Samuel Baxter

$1,887 Vol.

<1%

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Raiden DeDominicis

$691 Vol.

<1%

A by-election for the seat of University—Rosedale, Ontario in the House of Commons of Canada is currently scheduled to be held on April 13, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the University—Rosedale, Ontario seat in the House of Commons of Canada. If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Canadian government, specifically Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/home.aspx).Dr. Danielle Martin's 99.6% implied probability reflects trader consensus on her lockstep hold of the Liberal stronghold University—Rosedale, a downtown Toronto federal riding where Chrystia Freeland won 64% in the 2025 general election before resigning. Hand-picked by Prime Minister Mark Carney and endorsed by cabinet ministers like Adam van Koeverden, the family physician and University of Toronto professor leverages strong party resources and healthcare advocacy appealing to urban professionals. Recent advance polls ending April 6 drew ~9,400 voters, signaling momentum, while models project Liberals at 59–64% against fragmented opposition including Conservative Don Hodgson, NDP Serena Purdy, Green Andrew Massey, and PPC Andy D’Andrea. Election day April 13; only extraordinary late scandals, turnout surges, or disputes could shift results.

A by-election for the seat of University—Rosedale, Ontario in the House of Commons of Canada is currently scheduled to be held on April 13, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the University—Rosedale, Ontario seat in the House of Commons of Canada.

If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Canadian government, specifically Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/home.aspx).
Volume
$58,309
End Date
Apr 13, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 3, 2026, 7:46 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election for the seat of University—Rosedale, Ontario in the House of Commons of Canada is currently scheduled to be held on April 13, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the University—Rosedale, Ontario seat in the House of Commons of Canada. If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Canadian government, specifically Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/home.aspx).
A by-election for the seat of University—Rosedale, Ontario in the House of Commons of Canada is currently scheduled to be held on April 13, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the University—Rosedale, Ontario seat in the House of Commons of Canada. If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Canadian government, specifically Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/home.aspx).Dr. Danielle Martin's 99.6% implied probability reflects trader consensus on her lockstep hold of the Liberal stronghold University—Rosedale, a downtown Toronto federal riding where Chrystia Freeland won 64% in the 2025 general election before resigning. Hand-picked by Prime Minister Mark Carney and endorsed by cabinet ministers like Adam van Koeverden, the family physician and University of Toronto professor leverages strong party resources and healthcare advocacy appealing to urban professionals. Recent advance polls ending April 6 drew ~9,400 voters, signaling momentum, while models project Liberals at 59–64% against fragmented opposition including Conservative Don Hodgson, NDP Serena Purdy, Green Andrew Massey, and PPC Andy D’Andrea. Election day April 13; only extraordinary late scandals, turnout surges, or disputes could shift results.

A by-election for the seat of University—Rosedale, Ontario in the House of Commons of Canada is currently scheduled to be held on April 13, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the University—Rosedale, Ontario seat in the House of Commons of Canada.

If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Canadian government, specifically Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/home.aspx).
Volume
$58,309
End Date
Apr 13, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 3, 2026, 7:46 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election for the seat of University—Rosedale, Ontario in the House of Commons of Canada is currently scheduled to be held on April 13, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the University—Rosedale, Ontario seat in the House of Commons of Canada. If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Canadian government, specifically Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/home.aspx).

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Frequently Asked Questions

"University—Rosedale By-Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 10 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Danielle Martin" at 100%, followed by "Don Hodgson" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "University—Rosedale By-Election Winner" has generated $58.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on Apr 3, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "University—Rosedale By-Election Winner," browse the 10 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "University—Rosedale By-Election Winner" is "Danielle Martin" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Don Hodgson" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "University—Rosedale By-Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.