Market icon

Peru Presidential Election First Round Winner

Market icon

Peru Presidential Election First Round Winner

Keiko Fujimori 67%

Ricardo Belmont 18.7%

Rafael López Aliaga 7.3%

Carlos Álvarez 4.9%

Polymarket

$652,930 Vol.

Keiko Fujimori 67%

Ricardo Belmont 18.7%

Rafael López Aliaga 7.3%

Carlos Álvarez 4.9%

Polymarket

$652,930 Vol.

Market icon

Keiko Fujimori

$215,692 Vol.

67%

Market icon

Ricardo Belmont

$67,066 Vol.

19%

Market icon

Rafael López Aliaga

$80,132 Vol.

7%

Market icon

Carlos Álvarez

$74,694 Vol.

5%

Market icon

Roberto Sánchez Palomino

$61,076 Vol.

2%

Market icon

Jorge Nieto

$44,411 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Alfonso López Chau

$38,401 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Vladimir Cerrón

$3,171 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Fiorella Molinelli

$1,532 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Carlos Espá

$2,785 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Yonhy Lescano

$7,868 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Roberto Chiabra

$1,812 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

José Williams

$2,298 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Fernando Olivera

$3,362 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Rafael Belaúnde Llosa

$9,378 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Marisol Pérez Tello

$13,138 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Mario Vizcarra

$1,987 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

César Acuña

$7,754 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

José Luna

$1,825 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Wolfgang Grozo

$5,038 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

George Forsyth

$1,658 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Enrique Valderrama

$2,780 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Mesías Guevara

$5,183 Vol.

<1%

First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)Keiko Fujimori leads trader consensus at 67% implied probability to win Peru's April 12 presidential first-round plurality amid a record 35-candidate field, where no contender nears the 50% majority needed to avoid a June runoff. Recent Ipsos and Datum polls from early April (latest before the 48-hour silence period) show her at 10-18% intention of vote, consistently ahead of Rafael López Aliaga (9-13%) despite his late surge, while Carlos Álvarez and surging ex-Mayor Ricardo Belmont (up to 9% in some surveys) split the fragmented right-wing vote on crime and corruption concerns. High undecideds (25-38%) and regional variations keep the race fluid, but Fujimori's Fuerza Popular machinery and name recognition position her as the plurality favorite per market wisdom.

First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election.

The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
Volume
$652,930
End Date
Apr 12, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 20, 2026, 10:29 AM ET
First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)Keiko Fujimori leads trader consensus at 67% implied probability to win Peru's April 12 presidential first-round plurality amid a record 35-candidate field, where no contender nears the 50% majority needed to avoid a June runoff. Recent Ipsos and Datum polls from early April (latest before the 48-hour silence period) show her at 10-18% intention of vote, consistently ahead of Rafael López Aliaga (9-13%) despite his late surge, while Carlos Álvarez and surging ex-Mayor Ricardo Belmont (up to 9% in some surveys) split the fragmented right-wing vote on crime and corruption concerns. High undecideds (25-38%) and regional variations keep the race fluid, but Fujimori's Fuerza Popular machinery and name recognition position her as the plurality favorite per market wisdom.

First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election.

The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
Volume
$652,930
End Date
Apr 12, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 20, 2026, 10:29 AM ET
First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Peru Presidential Election First Round Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 23 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Keiko Fujimori" at 67%, followed by "Ricardo Belmont" at 19%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 67¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 67% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Peru Presidential Election First Round Winner" has generated $652.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 20, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Peru Presidential Election First Round Winner," browse the 23 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Peru Presidential Election First Round Winner" is "Keiko Fujimori" at 67%, meaning the market assigns a 67% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Ricardo Belmont" at 19%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Peru Presidential Election First Round Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.