Keiko Fujimori leads trader consensus at 67% implied probability to win Peru's April 12 presidential first-round plurality amid a record 35-candidate field, where no contender nears the 50% majority needed to avoid a June runoff. Recent Ipsos and Datum polls from early April (latest before the 48-hour silence period) show her at 10-18% intention of vote, consistently ahead of Rafael López Aliaga (9-13%) despite his late surge, while Carlos Álvarez and surging ex-Mayor Ricardo Belmont (up to 9% in some surveys) split the fragmented right-wing vote on crime and corruption concerns. High undecideds (25-38%) and regional variations keep the race fluid, but Fujimori's Fuerza Popular machinery and name recognition position her as the plurality favorite per market wisdom.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedKeiko Fujimori 67%
Ricardo Belmont 18.7%
Rafael López Aliaga 7.3%
Carlos Álvarez 4.9%
$652,930 Vol.
$652,930 Vol.

Keiko Fujimori
67%

Ricardo Belmont
19%

Rafael López Aliaga
7%

Carlos Álvarez
5%

Roberto Sánchez Palomino
2%

Jorge Nieto
<1%

Alfonso López Chau
<1%

Vladimir Cerrón
<1%

Fiorella Molinelli
<1%

Carlos Espá
<1%

Yonhy Lescano
<1%

Roberto Chiabra
<1%

José Williams
<1%

Fernando Olivera
<1%

Rafael Belaúnde Llosa
<1%

Marisol Pérez Tello
<1%

Mario Vizcarra
<1%

César Acuña
<1%

José Luna
<1%

Wolfgang Grozo
<1%

George Forsyth
<1%

Enrique Valderrama
<1%

Mesías Guevara
<1%
Keiko Fujimori 67%
Ricardo Belmont 18.7%
Rafael López Aliaga 7.3%
Carlos Álvarez 4.9%
$652,930 Vol.
$652,930 Vol.

Keiko Fujimori
67%

Ricardo Belmont
19%

Rafael López Aliaga
7%

Carlos Álvarez
5%

Roberto Sánchez Palomino
2%

Jorge Nieto
<1%

Alfonso López Chau
<1%

Vladimir Cerrón
<1%

Fiorella Molinelli
<1%

Carlos Espá
<1%

Yonhy Lescano
<1%

Roberto Chiabra
<1%

José Williams
<1%

Fernando Olivera
<1%

Rafael Belaúnde Llosa
<1%

Marisol Pérez Tello
<1%

Mario Vizcarra
<1%

César Acuña
<1%

José Luna
<1%

Wolfgang Grozo
<1%

George Forsyth
<1%

Enrique Valderrama
<1%

Mesías Guevara
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
Market Opened: Mar 20, 2026, 10:29 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Keiko Fujimori leads trader consensus at 67% implied probability to win Peru's April 12 presidential first-round plurality amid a record 35-candidate field, where no contender nears the 50% majority needed to avoid a June runoff. Recent Ipsos and Datum polls from early April (latest before the 48-hour silence period) show her at 10-18% intention of vote, consistently ahead of Rafael López Aliaga (9-13%) despite his late surge, while Carlos Álvarez and surging ex-Mayor Ricardo Belmont (up to 9% in some surveys) split the fragmented right-wing vote on crime and corruption concerns. High undecideds (25-38%) and regional variations keep the race fluid, but Fujimori's Fuerza Popular machinery and name recognition position her as the plurality favorite per market wisdom.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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