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Elections·Global Elections

Presidential Election Winner 2028

Market icon
Elections·Global Elections

Presidential Election Winner 2028

JD Vance 18.8%

Gavin Newsom 16.7%

Marco Rubio 9.4%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 5.5%

Polymarket

$514,812,316 Vol.

JD Vance 18.8%

Gavin Newsom 16.7%

Marco Rubio 9.4%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 5.5%

Polymarket

$514,812,316 Vol.

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JD Vance

$10,076,751 Vol.

19%

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Gavin Newsom

$13,185,109 Vol.

17%

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Marco Rubio

$5,919,006 Vol.

9%

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Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

$10,703,389 Vol.

5%

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Jon Ossoff

$3,427,888 Vol.

4%

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Kamala Harris

$6,927,486 Vol.

3%

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Tucker Carlson

$9,853,263 Vol.

3%

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Ron DeSantis

$8,175,833 Vol.

2%

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Donald Trump

$6,913,888 Vol.

2%

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Josh Shapiro

$5,767,588 Vol.

2%

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Pete Buttigieg

$3,833,199 Vol.

2%

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Andy Beshear

$17,411,711 Vol.

1%

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JB Pritzker

$10,808,946 Vol.

1%

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Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson

$6,036,009 Vol.

1%

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James Talarico

$4,339,824 Vol.

1%

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Glenn Youngkin

$20,768,503 Vol.

1%

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Thomas Massie

$3,742,433 Vol.

1%

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Elon Musk

$22,600,058 Vol.

1%

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Gretchen Whitmer

$8,481,017 Vol.

1%

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Jamie Dimon

$7,534,233 Vol.

1%

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Greg Abbott

$31,795,442 Vol.

1%

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Michelle Obama

$13,579,497 Vol.

1%

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Ivanka Trump

$4,445,750 Vol.

1%

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Ro Khanna

$6,615,490 Vol.

1%

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Stephen Smith

$29,516,453 Vol.

1%

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Donald Trump Jr.

$9,095,178 Vol.

1%

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Nikki Haley

$21,711,183 Vol.

1%

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Zohran Mamdani

$17,486,898 Vol.

1%

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Eric Trump

$6,512,013 Vol.

1%

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Tim Walz

$39,386,442 Vol.

1%

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Wes Moore

$6,377,167 Vol.

1%

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Tulsi Gabbard

$27,956,802 Vol.

1%

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Pete Hegseth

$4,275,544 Vol.

1%

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Vivek Ramaswamy

$30,906,321 Vol.

1%

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Kim Kardashian

$32,615,501 Vol.

1%

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LeBron James

$46,038,178 Vol.

1%

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Vice President JD Vance holds a slim edge in trader consensus for the 2028 presidential election at 18.8% implied probability, bolstered by his incumbency advantage, a dominant 53% win in the March 28 CPAC straw poll as Trump's heir apparent, and a recent UMass Lowell survey showing him leading Gavin Newsom 33%-30% in a general election matchup. California Governor Gavin Newsom trails closely at 16.7%, fueled by March polls dominating California Democratic primary support over Kamala Harris, amid an open field post-2024. Secretary of State Marco Rubio's 9.4% reflects gains from foreign policy visibility in Iran tensions and Venezuela operations. The contest remains tight due to pre-primary fluidity, GOP Vance-Rubio rivalry, and Democratic lack of consensus; 2026 midterm results, Trump endorsements, early primaries, or scandals could widen gaps.

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028.

This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Volume
$514,812,316
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 2:44 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Vice President JD Vance holds a slim edge in trader consensus for the 2028 presidential election at 18.8% implied probability, bolstered by his incumbency advantage, a dominant 53% win in the March 28 CPAC straw poll as Trump's heir apparent, and a recent UMass Lowell survey showing him leading Gavin Newsom 33%-30% in a general election matchup. California Governor Gavin Newsom trails closely at 16.7%, fueled by March polls dominating California Democratic primary support over Kamala Harris, amid an open field post-2024. Secretary of State Marco Rubio's 9.4% reflects gains from foreign policy visibility in Iran tensions and Venezuela operations. The contest remains tight due to pre-primary fluidity, GOP Vance-Rubio rivalry, and Democratic lack of consensus; 2026 midterm results, Trump endorsements, early primaries, or scandals could widen gaps.

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028.

This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Volume
$514,812,316
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 2:44 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Presidential Election Winner 2028" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 36 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "JD Vance" at 19%, followed by "Gavin Newsom" at 17%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 19¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 19% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Presidential Election Winner 2028" has generated $514.8 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Presidential Election Winner 2028," browse the 36 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Presidential Election Winner 2028" is "JD Vance" at 19%, meaning the market assigns a 19% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Gavin Newsom" at 17%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Presidential Election Winner 2028" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.