Progressive Bulgaria (PB), the new centre-left coalition led by former President Rumen Radev who resigned in January 2026 to contest the race, commands trader consensus at over 94% implied probability of securing the most seats in the April 19 snap parliamentary election, reflecting its double-digit lead in recent polls like Sova Harris (34%, up 3 points as of early April) over GERB–SDS (19%) amid a fragmented field under proportional representation with a 4% threshold. This eighth election since 2021 stems from chronic government formation failures, boosting PB's anti-establishment appeal; no party nears the 121 seats needed for a majority. Late challenges could arise from scandals targeting Radev, unexpected turnout surges for GERB–SDS, or polling errors in undecided voters, though historical fragmentation favors the poll leader translating support into the plurality.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedPB 94.3%
GERB–SDS 4.7%
PP–DB <1%
ITN <1%
$146,256 Vol.
$146,256 Vol.
Apr 19, 2026
PB
94%
GERB–SDS
5%
PP–DB
1%
ITN
<1%
Velichie
<1%
DPS
<1%
APS
<1%
BSP-United Left
<1%
MECH
<1%
Vazrazhdane
<1%
PB 94.3%
GERB–SDS 4.7%
PP–DB <1%
ITN <1%
$146,256 Vol.
$146,256 Vol.
Apr 19, 2026
PB
$44,864 Vol.
94%
GERB–SDS
$19,325 Vol.
5%
PP–DB
$14,924 Vol.
1%
ITN
$11,889 Vol.
<1%
Velichie
$14,530 Vol.
<1%
DPS
$4,252 Vol.
<1%
APS
$11,608 Vol.
<1%
BSP-United Left
$6,898 Vol.
<1%
MECH
$8,424 Vol.
<1%
Vazrazhdane
$9,543 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Bulgaria on April 19, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Bulgarian National Assembly as a result of this election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties or coalitions for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. If no abbreviation is listed, the listed name will be used.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Bulgarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).Progressive Bulgaria (PB), the new centre-left coalition led by former President Rumen Radev who resigned in January 2026 to contest the race, commands trader consensus at over 94% implied probability of securing the most seats in the April 19 snap parliamentary election, reflecting its double-digit lead in recent polls like Sova Harris (34%, up 3 points as of early April) over GERB–SDS (19%) amid a fragmented field under proportional representation with a 4% threshold. This eighth election since 2021 stems from chronic government formation failures, boosting PB's anti-establishment appeal; no party nears the 121 seats needed for a majority. Late challenges could arise from scandals targeting Radev, unexpected turnout surges for GERB–SDS, or polling errors in undecided voters, though historical fragmentation favors the poll leader translating support into the plurality.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Bulgaria on April 19, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Bulgarian National Assembly as a result of this election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties or coalitions for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. If no abbreviation is listed, the listed name will be used.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Bulgarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).
This market will resolve according to the listed political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Bulgarian National Assembly as a result of this election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties or coalitions for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. If no abbreviation is listed, the listed name will be used.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Bulgarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).
Market Opened: Mar 13, 2026, 1:57 PM ET
Volume
$146,256End Date
Apr 19, 2026Market Opened
Mar 13, 2026, 1:57 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Bulgaria on April 19, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Bulgarian National Assembly as a result of this election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties or coalitions for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. If no abbreviation is listed, the listed name will be used.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Bulgarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).Progressive Bulgaria (PB), the new centre-left coalition led by former President Rumen Radev who resigned in January 2026 to contest the race, commands trader consensus at over 94% implied probability of securing the most seats in the April 19 snap parliamentary election, reflecting its double-digit lead in recent polls like Sova Harris (34%, up 3 points as of early April) over GERB–SDS (19%) amid a fragmented field under proportional representation with a 4% threshold. This eighth election since 2021 stems from chronic government formation failures, boosting PB's anti-establishment appeal; no party nears the 121 seats needed for a majority. Late challenges could arise from scandals targeting Radev, unexpected turnout surges for GERB–SDS, or polling errors in undecided voters, though historical fragmentation favors the poll leader translating support into the plurality.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Bulgaria on April 19, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Bulgarian National Assembly as a result of this election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties or coalitions for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. If no abbreviation is listed, the listed name will be used.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Bulgarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).
This market will resolve according to the listed political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Bulgarian National Assembly as a result of this election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties or coalitions for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. If no abbreviation is listed, the listed name will be used.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Bulgarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).
Volume
$146,256End Date
Apr 19, 2026Market Opened
Mar 13, 2026, 1:57 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Progressive Bulgaria (PB), the new centre-left coalition led by former President Rumen Radev who resigned in January 2026 to contest the race, commands trader consensus at over 94% implied probability of securing the most seats in the April 19 snap parliamentary election, reflecting its double-digit lead in recent polls like Sova Harris (34%, up 3 points as of early April) over GERB–SDS (19%) amid a fragmented field under proportional representation with a 4% threshold. This eighth election since 2021 stems from chronic government formation failures, boosting PB's anti-establishment appeal; no party nears the 121 seats needed for a majority. Late challenges could arise from scandals targeting Radev, unexpected turnout surges for GERB–SDS, or polling errors in undecided voters, though historical fragmentation favors the poll leader translating support into the plurality.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions