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Politics·US Election

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

Market icon
Politics·US Election

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

J.D. Vance 39.1%

Marco Rubio 21.6%

Tucker Carlson 5.1%

Ron DeSantis 2.6%

Polymarket

$543,407,959 Vol.

J.D. Vance 39.1%

Marco Rubio 21.6%

Tucker Carlson 5.1%

Ron DeSantis 2.6%

Polymarket

$543,407,959 Vol.

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J.D. Vance

$11,700,883 Vol.

39%

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Marco Rubio

$7,560,536 Vol.

22%

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Tucker Carlson

$8,478,604 Vol.

5%

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Ron DeSantis

$12,259,153 Vol.

3%

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Donald Trump

$6,921,252 Vol.

2%

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Thomas Massie

$3,213,796 Vol.

2%

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Donald Trump Jr.

$6,445,215 Vol.

2%

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Glenn Youngkin

$5,762,918 Vol.

1%

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Rand Paul

$16,701,243 Vol.

1%

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Tulsi Gabbard

$11,229,432 Vol.

1%

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Vivek Ramaswamy

$13,153,468 Vol.

1%

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Ivanka Trump

$5,906,449 Vol.

1%

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Elon Musk

$26,422,287 Vol.

1%

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Nikki Haley

$7,814,603 Vol.

1%

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Marjorie Taylor Greene

$4,278,923 Vol.

1%

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Ted Cruz

$14,847,015 Vol.

1%

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Greg Abbott

$17,769,873 Vol.

1%

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Matt Gaetz

$16,044,203 Vol.

1%

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Eric Trump

$4,695,111 Vol.

1%

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Sarah Huckabee Sanders

$28,577,534 Vol.

1%

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Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

$11,961,584 Vol.

1%

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Brian Kemp

$13,633,165 Vol.

1%

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Josh Hawley

$16,990,725 Vol.

1%

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Katie Britt

$25,072,564 Vol.

1%

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Joe Kent

$3,152,784 Vol.

1%

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Tom Brady

$28,940,296 Vol.

1%

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Steve Bannon

$16,310,949 Vol.

1%

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Kim Kardashian

$24,635,507 Vol.

1%

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Pete Hegseth

$3,012,814 Vol.

1%

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Byron Donalds

$35,741,802 Vol.

1%

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Elise Stefanik

$22,711,855 Vol.

1%

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Erika Kirk

$13,768,584 Vol.

1%

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John Thune

$30,557,970 Vol.

1%

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Kristi Noem

$29,859,861 Vol.

1%

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Mike Pence

$37,283,770 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leads trader consensus at 49% implied probability for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, edging Vice President J.D. Vance at 39.1% amid a fragmented field with Secretary of State Marco Rubio third at 21.6%. RFK Jr.'s edge stems from his March 2026 family endorsement signaling a likely bid, bolstered by popular "Make America Healthy Again" reforms resonating with populist voters skeptical of federal health agencies. Vance retains core MAGA loyalty as Trump's heir apparent but trails due to donor preferences favoring Rubio in private Trump soundings. The tight contest reflects uncertainty over post-term-limits succession, with 2026 midterms, CPAC straw polls, and potential Trump endorsements poised to widen gaps among battleground primary states.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.

Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$543,407,959
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 3:21 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leads trader consensus at 49% implied probability for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, edging Vice President J.D. Vance at 39.1% amid a fragmented field with Secretary of State Marco Rubio third at 21.6%. RFK Jr.'s edge stems from his March 2026 family endorsement signaling a likely bid, bolstered by popular "Make America Healthy Again" reforms resonating with populist voters skeptical of federal health agencies. Vance retains core MAGA loyalty as Trump's heir apparent but trails due to donor preferences favoring Rubio in private Trump soundings. The tight contest reflects uncertainty over post-term-limits succession, with 2026 midterms, CPAC straw polls, and potential Trump endorsements poised to widen gaps among battleground primary states.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.

Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$543,407,959
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 3:21 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 35 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "J.D. Vance" at 39%, followed by "Marco Rubio" at 22%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 39¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 39% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" has generated $543.4 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028," browse the 35 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" is "J.D. Vance" at 39%, meaning the market assigns a 39% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Marco Rubio" at 22%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.