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Politics·US Election

OH-01 Republican Primary Winner

Market icon
Politics·US Election

OH-01 Republican Primary Winner

Eric Conroy 43%

Steven Erbeck 35%

Holly Adams <1%

Rosemary Oglesby-Henry <1%

Polymarket

$13,284 Vol.

Eric Conroy 43%

Steven Erbeck 35%

Holly Adams <1%

Rosemary Oglesby-Henry <1%

Polymarket

$13,284 Vol.

Eric Conroy

$12,525 Vol.

43%

Steven Erbeck

$299 Vol.

37%

Holly Adams

$232 Vol.

1%

Rosemary Oglesby-Henry

$229 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the OH-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 5, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus in the OH-01 Republican primary favors former CIA officer and Air Force veteran Eric Conroy at 54.5% implied probability over dentist Steven Erbeck at 39%, reflecting Conroy's early frontrunner status from his national security background in this competitive Cincinnati-area district redrawn in late 2025 to include more rural voters. Erbeck has narrowed the gap following his recent endorsement by the Warren County Republican Party, a key addition to the district, alongside local appeal as a Madeira practitioner. The other contenders trail far behind amid limited fundraising and visibility, with public radio interviews last week highlighting candidate platforms ahead of the May 5 primary and ongoing early voting. No public polls exist, underscoring uncertainty in this open GOP contest to challenge incumbent Democrat Greg Landsman.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the OH-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 5, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$13,284
End Date
May 5, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 26, 2026, 4:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the OH-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 5, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the OH-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 5, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus in the OH-01 Republican primary favors former CIA officer and Air Force veteran Eric Conroy at 54.5% implied probability over dentist Steven Erbeck at 39%, reflecting Conroy's early frontrunner status from his national security background in this competitive Cincinnati-area district redrawn in late 2025 to include more rural voters. Erbeck has narrowed the gap following his recent endorsement by the Warren County Republican Party, a key addition to the district, alongside local appeal as a Madeira practitioner. The other contenders trail far behind amid limited fundraising and visibility, with public radio interviews last week highlighting candidate platforms ahead of the May 5 primary and ongoing early voting. No public polls exist, underscoring uncertainty in this open GOP contest to challenge incumbent Democrat Greg Landsman.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the OH-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 5, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$13,284
End Date
May 5, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 26, 2026, 4:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the OH-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 5, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"OH-01 Republican Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Eric Conroy" at 43%, followed by "Steven Erbeck" at 37%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 43¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 43% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "OH-01 Republican Primary Winner" has generated $13.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 26, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "OH-01 Republican Primary Winner," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "OH-01 Republican Primary Winner" is "Eric Conroy" at 43%, meaning the market assigns a 43% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Steven Erbeck" at 37%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "OH-01 Republican Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.