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Elections·US Election

Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?

Market icon
Elections·US Election

Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?

$1,648,193 Vol.

Polymarket

$1,648,193 Vol.

Market icon

Democratic

$710,242 Vol.

61%

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Republican

$937,950 Vol.

40%

The 2028 United States presidential election will be held on Tuesday, November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the political party whose candidate is elected the next President of the United States in the 2028 election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same party. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same party by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Democrats at 60.5% to win the 2028 US presidential election, reflecting backlash against the Trump administration's Iran military operation launched February 28, which polls show lacks majority public support and has eroded Republican favorability. A fragile two-week US-Iran ceasefire announced April 7, with talks underway in Islamabad ahead of the April 21 deadline, has failed to fully reverse the damage, as House Democrats push war powers resolutions and midterm momentum builds. President Trump's term limit opens the race, with a fragmented Republican field led by VP J.D. Vance around 19% versus Gavin Newsom at 18.8% for Democrats; 2026 midterms loom as a key test of party control and path-to-victory dynamics in swing states.

The 2028 United States presidential election will be held on Tuesday, November 7, 2028.

This market will resolve to the political party whose candidate is elected the next President of the United States in the 2028 election.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same party. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same party by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Volume
$1,648,193
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 18, 2025, 1:27 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

The 2028 United States presidential election will be held on Tuesday, November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the political party whose candidate is elected the next President of the United States in the 2028 election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same party. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same party by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
The 2028 United States presidential election will be held on Tuesday, November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the political party whose candidate is elected the next President of the United States in the 2028 election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same party. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same party by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Democrats at 60.5% to win the 2028 US presidential election, reflecting backlash against the Trump administration's Iran military operation launched February 28, which polls show lacks majority public support and has eroded Republican favorability. A fragile two-week US-Iran ceasefire announced April 7, with talks underway in Islamabad ahead of the April 21 deadline, has failed to fully reverse the damage, as House Democrats push war powers resolutions and midterm momentum builds. President Trump's term limit opens the race, with a fragmented Republican field led by VP J.D. Vance around 19% versus Gavin Newsom at 18.8% for Democrats; 2026 midterms loom as a key test of party control and path-to-victory dynamics in swing states.

The 2028 United States presidential election will be held on Tuesday, November 7, 2028.

This market will resolve to the political party whose candidate is elected the next President of the United States in the 2028 election.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same party. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same party by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Volume
$1,648,193
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 18, 2025, 1:27 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

The 2028 United States presidential election will be held on Tuesday, November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the political party whose candidate is elected the next President of the United States in the 2028 election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same party. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same party by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Democratic" at 61%, followed by "Republican" at 40%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 61¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 61% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?" has generated $1.6 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 18, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?" is "Democratic" at 61%, meaning the market assigns a 61% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Republican" at 40%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.