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Elections·US Election

California Governor Election Winner

Market icon
Elections·US Election

California Governor Election Winner

Tom Steyer 56.9%

Katie Porter 12.5%

Matt Mahan 13%

Steve Hilton 6.7%

Polymarket

$8,910,064 Vol.

Tom Steyer 56.9%

Katie Porter 12.5%

Matt Mahan 13%

Steve Hilton 6.7%

Polymarket

$8,910,064 Vol.

Tom Steyer

$2,725,495 Vol.

57%

Katie Porter

$633,402 Vol.

13%

Matt Mahan

$184,043 Vol.

13%

Steve Hilton

$779,030 Vol.

7%

Eric Swalwell

$172,626 Vol.

4%

Elaine Culotti

$80,011 Vol.

4%

Chad Bianco

$687,950 Vol.

2%

Xavier Becerra

$349,543 Vol.

1%

Rick Caruso

$291,533 Vol.

<1%

Stephen Cloobeck

$151,285 Vol.

<1%

Betty Yee

$111,610 Vol.

<1%

Tony Thurmond

$153,420 Vol.

<1%

Leo Zacky

$177,101 Vol.

<1%

Alex Padilla

$251,713 Vol.

<1%

Antonio Villaraigosa

$80,212 Vol.

<1%

Toni Atkins

$202,229 Vol.

<1%

Kyle Langford

$547,820 Vol.

<1%

Eleni Kounalakis

$320,883 Vol.

<1%

Kamala Harris

$149,135 Vol.

<1%

Butch Ware

$190,987 Vol.

<1%

Daniel Mercuri

$205,607 Vol.

<1%

Michael Younger

$274,047 Vol.

<1%

Nicole Shanahan

$190,384 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.Billionaire Democrat Tom Steyer leads trader consensus at 57% implied probability to win California's open-seat governorship, buoyed by heavy self-funding, union endorsements including from Toni Atkins after her withdrawal, and environmental group backing, positioning him to consolidate the fragmented Democratic primary field ahead of the June 2 top-two primary. Recent sexual assault allegations against Rep. Eric Swalwell on April 10 prompted mass endorsement rescissions from figures like Adam Schiff, eroding his polling lead and shifting bets toward Steyer. San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan benefits from recent tech donor pledges like a $35 million commitment, while ex-Rep. Katie Porter holds steady with progressive support; polls through early April show Republican Steve Hilton (Trump-endorsed) leading at 17%, highlighting market divergence from surveys amid 20-30% undecided voters.

This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.

If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
Volume
$8,910,064
End Date
Nov 3, 2026
Market Opened
Oct 9, 2025, 7:21 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.Billionaire Democrat Tom Steyer leads trader consensus at 57% implied probability to win California's open-seat governorship, buoyed by heavy self-funding, union endorsements including from Toni Atkins after her withdrawal, and environmental group backing, positioning him to consolidate the fragmented Democratic primary field ahead of the June 2 top-two primary. Recent sexual assault allegations against Rep. Eric Swalwell on April 10 prompted mass endorsement rescissions from figures like Adam Schiff, eroding his polling lead and shifting bets toward Steyer. San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan benefits from recent tech donor pledges like a $35 million commitment, while ex-Rep. Katie Porter holds steady with progressive support; polls through early April show Republican Steve Hilton (Trump-endorsed) leading at 17%, highlighting market divergence from surveys amid 20-30% undecided voters.

This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.

If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
Volume
$8,910,064
End Date
Nov 3, 2026
Market Opened
Oct 9, 2025, 7:21 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"California Governor Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 23 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Tom Steyer" at 57%, followed by "Katie Porter" at 13%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 57¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 57% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "California Governor Election Winner" has generated $8.9 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Oct 9, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "California Governor Election Winner," browse the 23 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "California Governor Election Winner" is "Tom Steyer" at 57%, meaning the market assigns a 57% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Katie Porter" at 13%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "California Governor Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.