Despite intensified Democratic calls for impeachment and 25th Amendment invocation in the past week—triggered by President Trump's threats to destroy Iran's infrastructure before agreeing to a two-week ceasefire—trader consensus holds at 83.5% against his removal before December 31, 2026. Republican majorities in the House and Senate make two-thirds votes for conviction or sustaining Section 4 action unattainable, with no indications of Vice President Vance or cabinet support. Official White House rebuttals to health rumors further diminish risks of resignation or incapacity. Midterm elections on November 3 could shift congressional dynamics, but historical barriers to presidential ousters reinforce the low-probability "Yes" outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$6,854,473 Vol.
$6,854,473 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$6,854,473 Vol.
$6,854,473 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Despite intensified Democratic calls for impeachment and 25th Amendment invocation in the past week—triggered by President Trump's threats to destroy Iran's infrastructure before agreeing to a two-week ceasefire—trader consensus holds at 83.5% against his removal before December 31, 2026. Republican majorities in the House and Senate make two-thirds votes for conviction or sustaining Section 4 action unattainable, with no indications of Vice President Vance or cabinet support. Official White House rebuttals to health rumors further diminish risks of resignation or incapacity. Midterm elections on November 3 could shift congressional dynamics, but historical barriers to presidential ousters reinforce the low-probability "Yes" outcome.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ET
Volume
$6,854,473End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Despite intensified Democratic calls for impeachment and 25th Amendment invocation in the past week—triggered by President Trump's threats to destroy Iran's infrastructure before agreeing to a two-week ceasefire—trader consensus holds at 83.5% against his removal before December 31, 2026. Republican majorities in the House and Senate make two-thirds votes for conviction or sustaining Section 4 action unattainable, with no indications of Vice President Vance or cabinet support. Official White House rebuttals to health rumors further diminish risks of resignation or incapacity. Midterm elections on November 3 could shift congressional dynamics, but historical barriers to presidential ousters reinforce the low-probability "Yes" outcome.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$6,854,473End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Despite intensified Democratic calls for impeachment and 25th Amendment invocation in the past week—triggered by President Trump's threats to destroy Iran's infrastructure before agreeing to a two-week ceasefire—trader consensus holds at 83.5% against his removal before December 31, 2026. Republican majorities in the House and Senate make two-thirds votes for conviction or sustaining Section 4 action unattainable, with no indications of Vice President Vance or cabinet support. Official White House rebuttals to health rumors further diminish risks of resignation or incapacity. Midterm elections on November 3 could shift congressional dynamics, but historical barriers to presidential ousters reinforce the low-probability "Yes" outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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