Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty that the Iranian regime will endure through April 30, driven by its effective crackdowns on early 2026 protests and resilience amid the US-Israel war that concluded with a ceasefire around early April. Despite Supreme Leader Khamenei's February death sparking a managed succession, economic strains, and airstrikes, intelligence assessments from US and Israeli sources confirm no widespread unrest or elite defections have materialized, as reported in recent analyses from outlets like Reuters and The Wall Street Journal. Pro-regime demonstrations and Revolutionary Guard patronage networks have quelled dissent. With only weeks remaining, dramatic shifts would require sudden mass uprisings, leadership fractures, or renewed military escalation—scenarios lacking current momentum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill the Iranian regime fall by April 30?
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?
$27,674,193 Vol.
$27,674,193 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
$27,674,193 Vol.
$27,674,193 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty that the Iranian regime will endure through April 30, driven by its effective crackdowns on early 2026 protests and resilience amid the US-Israel war that concluded with a ceasefire around early April. Despite Supreme Leader Khamenei's February death sparking a managed succession, economic strains, and airstrikes, intelligence assessments from US and Israeli sources confirm no widespread unrest or elite defections have materialized, as reported in recent analyses from outlets like Reuters and The Wall Street Journal. Pro-regime demonstrations and Revolutionary Guard patronage networks have quelled dissent. With only weeks remaining, dramatic shifts would require sudden mass uprisings, leadership fractures, or renewed military escalation—scenarios lacking current momentum.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 5, 2026, 12:03 PM ET
Volume
$27,674,193End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 5, 2026, 12:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty that the Iranian regime will endure through April 30, driven by its effective crackdowns on early 2026 protests and resilience amid the US-Israel war that concluded with a ceasefire around early April. Despite Supreme Leader Khamenei's February death sparking a managed succession, economic strains, and airstrikes, intelligence assessments from US and Israeli sources confirm no widespread unrest or elite defections have materialized, as reported in recent analyses from outlets like Reuters and The Wall Street Journal. Pro-regime demonstrations and Revolutionary Guard patronage networks have quelled dissent. With only weeks remaining, dramatic shifts would require sudden mass uprisings, leadership fractures, or renewed military escalation—scenarios lacking current momentum.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$27,674,300End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 5, 2026, 12:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty that the Iranian regime will endure through April 30, driven by its effective crackdowns on early 2026 protests and resilience amid the US-Israel war that concluded with a ceasefire around early April. Despite Supreme Leader Khamenei's February death sparking a managed succession, economic strains, and airstrikes, intelligence assessments from US and Israeli sources confirm no widespread unrest or elite defections have materialized, as reported in recent analyses from outlets like Reuters and The Wall Street Journal. Pro-regime demonstrations and Revolutionary Guard patronage networks have quelled dissent. With only weeks remaining, dramatic shifts would require sudden mass uprisings, leadership fractures, or renewed military escalation—scenarios lacking current momentum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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