Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's Supreme Leader since 1989, was killed in late February 2026 U.S.-Israeli airstrikes, prompting the Assembly of Experts to appoint his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as successor on March 8 amid wartime pressures from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. This transition formalized a leadership change, but recent intelligence assessments and reporting highlight Mojtaba's severe injuries from the same attack—including facial damage, leg trauma, and unconfirmed coma rumors—coupled with no public appearances, fueling speculation of incapacity. Rallies marking 40 days since Ali's death on April 8 reaffirmed loyalty, yet traders eye upcoming health updates or statements amid ceasefire talks and regional escalation risks that could trigger further succession before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$8,233,836 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
April 30
9%
May 31
19%
June 30
23%
December 31
36%
$8,233,836 Vol.
April 30
$2,764,381 Vol.
9%
May 31
$357,052 Vol.
19%
June 30
$366,688 Vol.
23%
December 31
$1,514,793 Vol.
36%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's Supreme Leader since 1989, was killed in late February 2026 U.S.-Israeli airstrikes, prompting the Assembly of Experts to appoint his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as successor on March 8 amid wartime pressures from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. This transition formalized a leadership change, but recent intelligence assessments and reporting highlight Mojtaba's severe injuries from the same attack—including facial damage, leg trauma, and unconfirmed coma rumors—coupled with no public appearances, fueling speculation of incapacity. Rallies marking 40 days since Ali's death on April 8 reaffirmed loyalty, yet traders eye upcoming health updates or statements amid ceasefire talks and regional escalation risks that could trigger further succession before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 8, 2026, 10:55 PM ET
Volume
$8,233,836End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 8, 2026, 10:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's Supreme Leader since 1989, was killed in late February 2026 U.S.-Israeli airstrikes, prompting the Assembly of Experts to appoint his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as successor on March 8 amid wartime pressures from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. This transition formalized a leadership change, but recent intelligence assessments and reporting highlight Mojtaba's severe injuries from the same attack—including facial damage, leg trauma, and unconfirmed coma rumors—coupled with no public appearances, fueling speculation of incapacity. Rallies marking 40 days since Ali's death on April 8 reaffirmed loyalty, yet traders eye upcoming health updates or statements amid ceasefire talks and regional escalation risks that could trigger further succession before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$8,233,836End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 8, 2026, 10:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's Supreme Leader since 1989, was killed in late February 2026 U.S.-Israeli airstrikes, prompting the Assembly of Experts to appoint his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as successor on March 8 amid wartime pressures from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. This transition formalized a leadership change, but recent intelligence assessments and reporting highlight Mojtaba's severe injuries from the same attack—including facial damage, leg trauma, and unconfirmed coma rumors—coupled with no public appearances, fueling speculation of incapacity. Rallies marking 40 days since Ali's death on April 8 reaffirmed loyalty, yet traders eye upcoming health updates or statements amid ceasefire talks and regional escalation risks that could trigger further succession before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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