Despite severe economic strain from sanctions, currency collapse, and the 2026 U.S.-Israel war's airstrikes in late February, the Iranian regime has maintained control through aggressive crackdowns by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and Basij forces, suppressing January protests that killed thousands without sparking sustained uprisings. Recent Reuters reporting highlights intensified arrests amid fears of post-war instability, while BBC and New York Times analyses note a fragile ceasefire and regime resilience, with organized pro-government rallies underscoring institutional cohesion. Israeli officials assess no immediate conditions for overthrow, driving trader consensus to price regime survival at 94.5% by May 31, though leadership transitions or renewed external pressures could shift odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill the Iranian regime fall by May 31?
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?
$925,781 Vol.
$925,781 Vol.
May 31, 2026
$925,781 Vol.
$925,781 Vol.
May 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Despite severe economic strain from sanctions, currency collapse, and the 2026 U.S.-Israel war's airstrikes in late February, the Iranian regime has maintained control through aggressive crackdowns by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and Basij forces, suppressing January protests that killed thousands without sparking sustained uprisings. Recent Reuters reporting highlights intensified arrests amid fears of post-war instability, while BBC and New York Times analyses note a fragile ceasefire and regime resilience, with organized pro-government rallies underscoring institutional cohesion. Israeli officials assess no immediate conditions for overthrow, driving trader consensus to price regime survival at 94.5% by May 31, though leadership transitions or renewed external pressures could shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Apr 1, 2026, 12:20 PM ET
Volume
$925,781End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 1, 2026, 12:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Despite severe economic strain from sanctions, currency collapse, and the 2026 U.S.-Israel war's airstrikes in late February, the Iranian regime has maintained control through aggressive crackdowns by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and Basij forces, suppressing January protests that killed thousands without sparking sustained uprisings. Recent Reuters reporting highlights intensified arrests amid fears of post-war instability, while BBC and New York Times analyses note a fragile ceasefire and regime resilience, with organized pro-government rallies underscoring institutional cohesion. Israeli officials assess no immediate conditions for overthrow, driving trader consensus to price regime survival at 94.5% by May 31, though leadership transitions or renewed external pressures could shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$925,781End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 1, 2026, 12:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Despite severe economic strain from sanctions, currency collapse, and the 2026 U.S.-Israel war's airstrikes in late February, the Iranian regime has maintained control through aggressive crackdowns by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and Basij forces, suppressing January protests that killed thousands without sparking sustained uprisings. Recent Reuters reporting highlights intensified arrests amid fears of post-war instability, while BBC and New York Times analyses note a fragile ceasefire and regime resilience, with organized pro-government rallies underscoring institutional cohesion. Israeli officials assess no immediate conditions for overthrow, driving trader consensus to price regime survival at 94.5% by May 31, though leadership transitions or renewed external pressures could shift odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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