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World·Middle East

Iran leader end of 2026?

Market icon
World·Middle East

Iran leader end of 2026?

Mojtaba Khamenei 63.9%

Hassan Rouhani 9.4%

Reza Pahlavi 9%

Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf 7.1%

Polymarket

$6,266,556 Vol.

Mojtaba Khamenei 63.9%

Hassan Rouhani 9.4%

Reza Pahlavi 9%

Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf 7.1%

Polymarket

$6,266,556 Vol.

Mojtaba Khamenei

$1,436,487 Vol.

64%

Hassan Rouhani

$274,075 Vol.

9%

Reza Pahlavi

$143,702 Vol.

9%

Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf

$166,943 Vol.

7%

No Head of State

$367,557 Vol.

3%

Alireza Arafi

$777,001 Vol.

2%

Abbas Araghchi

$95,547 Vol.

2%

Masoud Pezeshkian

$241,823 Vol.

1%

Maryam Rajavi

$240,029 Vol.

1%

Sadegh Larijani

$174,515 Vol.

<1%

Hassan Khomeini

$681,056 Vol.

<1%

Ahmad Vahidi

$194,390 Vol.

<1%

Mohammad Khatami

$230,927 Vol.

<1%

Hassan Shariatmadari

$148,770 Vol.

<1%

Navid Shomali

$53,432 Vol.

<1%

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad

$48,637 Vol.

<1%

Ali Asghar Hejazi

$75,079 Vol.

<1%

Muhammad Mirbaqiri

$271,313 Vol.

<1%

Massoud Rajavi

$22,079 Vol.

<1%

Seyed Hossein Mousavian

$32,581 Vol.

<1%

Reza Pirzadeh

$26,764 Vol.

<1%

Mustafa Hijri

$19,415 Vol.

<1%

Ali Motahari

$48,704 Vol.

<1%

Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel

$35,160 Vol.

<1%

Mostafa Pourmohammadi

$65,711 Vol.

<1%

Sadegh Mahsouli

$47,017 Vol.

<1%

Saeed Jalili

$44,152 Vol.

<1%

Mohsen Araki

$28,091 Vol.

<1%

Nasir Hosseini

$14,350 Vol.

<1%

Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani

$24,388 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Trader consensus heavily favors Mojtaba Khamenei at 63.8% implied probability to remain Iran's Supreme Leader by end-2026, reflecting his official selection by the Assembly of Experts on March 8 following Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's assassination in US-Israeli strikes on February 28. This dynastic continuity amid wartime instability underpins his lead, despite recent intelligence reports—emerged four days ago—claiming he sustained severe injuries in the same attacks, rendering him unconscious and treated in Qom. Iranian officials rebutted these on April 9, affirming his active governance role during 40-day mourning commemorations. Lower odds for Hassan Rouhani (9.4%) and Reza Pahlavi (9.0%) capture speculation on reformist resurgence or opposition gains if health crises escalate, while others trail amid Assembly control and IRGC influence. Ongoing conflict and diplomatic tensions heighten uncertainty for leadership transitions.

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.

If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Volume
$6,266,556
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Trader consensus heavily favors Mojtaba Khamenei at 63.8% implied probability to remain Iran's Supreme Leader by end-2026, reflecting his official selection by the Assembly of Experts on March 8 following Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's assassination in US-Israeli strikes on February 28. This dynastic continuity amid wartime instability underpins his lead, despite recent intelligence reports—emerged four days ago—claiming he sustained severe injuries in the same attacks, rendering him unconscious and treated in Qom. Iranian officials rebutted these on April 9, affirming his active governance role during 40-day mourning commemorations. Lower odds for Hassan Rouhani (9.4%) and Reza Pahlavi (9.0%) capture speculation on reformist resurgence or opposition gains if health crises escalate, while others trail amid Assembly control and IRGC influence. Ongoing conflict and diplomatic tensions heighten uncertainty for leadership transitions.

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.

If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Volume
$6,266,556
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.

Related

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Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?

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US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?

14%
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Iran leadership change by December 31?

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Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Iran leader end of 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 32 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Mojtaba Khamenei" at 64%, followed by "Hassan Rouhani" at 9%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 64¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 64% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Iran leader end of 2026?" has generated $6.3 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 1, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Iran leader end of 2026?," browse the 32 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Iran leader end of 2026?" is "Mojtaba Khamenei" at 64%, meaning the market assigns a 64% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Hassan Rouhani" at 9%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Iran leader end of 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.