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Politics·Strike

Military action against Iran ends on...?

Market icon
Politics·Strike

Military action against Iran ends on...?

Apr 30

Apr 30

April 9 98.2%

Military action through April 30 <1%

April 10 <1%

April 11 <1%

Polymarket

$9,402,453 Vol.

April 9 98.2%

Military action through April 30 <1%

April 10 <1%

April 11 <1%

Polymarket

$9,402,453 Vol.

April 9

$722,803 Vol.

98%

April 10

$691,686 Vol.

1%

April 11

$662,358 Vol.

<1%

April 12

$561,519 Vol.

<1%

April 13

$414,199 Vol.

<1%

April 14

$344,502 Vol.

<1%

April 15

$351,038 Vol.

<1%

April 16

$306,914 Vol.

<1%

April 17

$297,884 Vol.

<1%

April 18

$292,841 Vol.

<1%

April 19

$242,967 Vol.

<1%

April 20

$208,600 Vol.

<1%

April 21

$202,662 Vol.

<1%

April 22

$187,266 Vol.

<1%

April 23

$167,905 Vol.

<1%

April 24

$169,722 Vol.

<1%

April 25

$171,345 Vol.

<1%

April 26

$278,508 Vol.

<1%

April 27

$206,826 Vol.

<1%

April 28

$175,708 Vol.

<1%

April 29

$1,604,254 Vol.

<1%

April 30

$274,336 Vol.

<1%

Military action through April 30

$608,085 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action through April 30." For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify). Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors April 9 (98.2%) as the date military action against Iran ends, driven by a US-Iran ceasefire agreement announced around April 7-8 after weeks of US and Israeli airstrikes that degraded Iran's missile capabilities, navy, and air defenses. No new US or Israeli aerial strikes on Iranian soil have been reported since before the truce took effect, aligning with an Israeli official's statement that Washington targeted April 9 as the war's conclusion and President Trump's signals of de-escalation. This skin-in-the-game assessment reflects the ceasefire holding amid stabilizing oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Scenarios that could shift odds include ceasefire breakdown ahead of the April 22 deadline, Iranian retaliation, or renewed strikes from escalation in proxy conflicts like Lebanon.

This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.

If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action through April 30."

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$9,402,453
End Date
Apr 30, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 27, 2026, 2:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action through April 30." For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify). Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Outcome proposed: Yes

Disputed

Outcome proposal

Final dispute

Final

This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action through April 30." For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify). Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors April 9 (98.2%) as the date military action against Iran ends, driven by a US-Iran ceasefire agreement announced around April 7-8 after weeks of US and Israeli airstrikes that degraded Iran's missile capabilities, navy, and air defenses. No new US or Israeli aerial strikes on Iranian soil have been reported since before the truce took effect, aligning with an Israeli official's statement that Washington targeted April 9 as the war's conclusion and President Trump's signals of de-escalation. This skin-in-the-game assessment reflects the ceasefire holding amid stabilizing oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Scenarios that could shift odds include ceasefire breakdown ahead of the April 22 deadline, Iranian retaliation, or renewed strikes from escalation in proxy conflicts like Lebanon.

This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.

If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action through April 30."

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$9,402,453
End Date
Apr 30, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 27, 2026, 2:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action through April 30." For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify). Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Outcome proposed: Yes

Disputed

Outcome proposal

Final dispute

Final

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Military action against Iran ends on...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 32 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "April 9" at 98%, followed by "April 10" at 1%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 98¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 98% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Military action against Iran ends on...?" has generated $9.4 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 27, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Military action against Iran ends on...?," browse the 32 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Military action against Iran ends on...?" is "April 9" at 98%, meaning the market assigns a 98% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "April 10" at 1%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Military action against Iran ends on...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.