A fragile two-week ceasefire between the United States, Israel, and Iran, brokered by Pakistan and effective since April 8, has paused direct military exchanges after over 40 days of intense US-Israeli airstrikes on Iranian missile sites, air defenses, and naval assets starting February 28, met by Iranian missile and drone barrages against Israel and US bases in Iraq and Gulf states. No verified Iranian strikes have occurred since April 9, per Institute for the Study of War reports, though Iran accuses Israel of violations via ongoing Lebanon operations against Hezbollah, which Tehran insists are covered by the truce. High-stakes US-Iran talks in Islamabad begin April 11, with President Trump warning of renewed strikes if they fail, potentially reshaping escalation risks before the April 30 resolution amid Strait of Hormuz tensions and proxy actions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIran military action against ___ by April 30?
Iran military action against ___ by April 30?
$799,745 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
Kuwait
68%
Iraq
41%
Qatar
38%
Bahrain
33%
Jordan
17%
Oman
8%
Lebanon
6%
Azerbaijan
5%
Yemen
3%
Syria
3%
Turkey
3%
Pakistan
3%
Cyprus
2%
Afghanistan
2%
Armenia
2%
UK
2%
India
1%
Georgia
1%
Germany
1%
Hungary
1%
France
1%
Italy
1%
Poland
<1%
Ukraine
<1%
Spain
<1%
$799,745 Vol.
Kuwait
$14,931 Vol.
68%
Iraq
$42,821 Vol.
41%
Qatar
$47,642 Vol.
38%
Bahrain
$10,517 Vol.
33%
Jordan
$4,077 Vol.
17%
Oman
$44,768 Vol.
8%
Lebanon
$29,229 Vol.
6%
Azerbaijan
$31,094 Vol.
5%
Yemen
$6,095 Vol.
3%
Syria
$8,370 Vol.
3%
Turkey
$9,672 Vol.
3%
Pakistan
$10,202 Vol.
3%
Cyprus
$9,902 Vol.
2%
Afghanistan
$787 Vol.
2%
Armenia
$1,655 Vol.
2%
UK
$20,187 Vol.
2%
India
$3,584 Vol.
1%
Georgia
$5,863 Vol.
1%
Germany
$7,201 Vol.
1%
Hungary
$13,693 Vol.
1%
France
$9,350 Vol.
1%
Italy
$990 Vol.
1%
Poland
$35,159 Vol.
<1%
Ukraine
$13,870 Vol.
<1%
Spain
$3,791 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.A fragile two-week ceasefire between the United States, Israel, and Iran, brokered by Pakistan and effective since April 8, has paused direct military exchanges after over 40 days of intense US-Israeli airstrikes on Iranian missile sites, air defenses, and naval assets starting February 28, met by Iranian missile and drone barrages against Israel and US bases in Iraq and Gulf states. No verified Iranian strikes have occurred since April 9, per Institute for the Study of War reports, though Iran accuses Israel of violations via ongoing Lebanon operations against Hezbollah, which Tehran insists are covered by the truce. High-stakes US-Iran talks in Islamabad begin April 11, with President Trump warning of renewed strikes if they fail, potentially reshaping escalation risks before the April 30 resolution amid Strait of Hormuz tensions and proxy actions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Market Opened: Mar 24, 2026, 1:27 PM ET
Volume
$799,745End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 1:27 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.A fragile two-week ceasefire between the United States, Israel, and Iran, brokered by Pakistan and effective since April 8, has paused direct military exchanges after over 40 days of intense US-Israeli airstrikes on Iranian missile sites, air defenses, and naval assets starting February 28, met by Iranian missile and drone barrages against Israel and US bases in Iraq and Gulf states. No verified Iranian strikes have occurred since April 9, per Institute for the Study of War reports, though Iran accuses Israel of violations via ongoing Lebanon operations against Hezbollah, which Tehran insists are covered by the truce. High-stakes US-Iran talks in Islamabad begin April 11, with President Trump warning of renewed strikes if they fail, potentially reshaping escalation risks before the April 30 resolution amid Strait of Hormuz tensions and proxy actions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Volume
$799,745End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 1:27 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A fragile two-week ceasefire between the United States, Israel, and Iran, brokered by Pakistan and effective since April 8, has paused direct military exchanges after over 40 days of intense US-Israeli airstrikes on Iranian missile sites, air defenses, and naval assets starting February 28, met by Iranian missile and drone barrages against Israel and US bases in Iraq and Gulf states. No verified Iranian strikes have occurred since April 9, per Institute for the Study of War reports, though Iran accuses Israel of violations via ongoing Lebanon operations against Hezbollah, which Tehran insists are covered by the truce. High-stakes US-Iran talks in Islamabad begin April 11, with President Trump warning of renewed strikes if they fail, potentially reshaping escalation risks before the April 30 resolution amid Strait of Hormuz tensions and proxy actions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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