A fragile two-week ceasefire between the United States, Israel, and Iran, agreed on April 8, 2026, has held without direct fire exchanges since then, driving trader caution amid partial reopening of the Strait of Hormuz for shipping. This pause follows over 40 days of intense escalation since U.S.-Israeli strikes began on February 28 targeting Iranian missiles, air defenses, and infrastructure, with Iranian retaliatory missile barrages on Israel and Gulf energy sites. Strains persist from Israeli operations in Lebanon—excluded from the deal—proxy militia activity, and disputes over Iran's 10-point peace framework versus U.S. demands on nuclear uranium stockpiles and sanctions. Upcoming Vice President Vance-led negotiations and Islamabad talks could extend de-escalation or trigger resumption by late April, reflecting high uncertainty in defining a permanent end to hostilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIran x Israel/US conflict ends by...?
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by...?
$33,353,508 Vol.
Apr 7, 2026
April 7
66%
April 15
68%
April 30
73%
May 15
78%
June 30
86%
December 31
95%
$33,353,508 Vol.
April 7
$11,840,373 Vol.
66%
April 15
$6,721,311 Vol.
68%
April 30
$3,010,972 Vol.
73%
May 15
$2,935,245 Vol.
78%
June 30
$2,374,135 Vol.
86%
December 31
$1,314,721 Vol.
95%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.A fragile two-week ceasefire between the United States, Israel, and Iran, agreed on April 8, 2026, has held without direct fire exchanges since then, driving trader caution amid partial reopening of the Strait of Hormuz for shipping. This pause follows over 40 days of intense escalation since U.S.-Israeli strikes began on February 28 targeting Iranian missiles, air defenses, and infrastructure, with Iranian retaliatory missile barrages on Israel and Gulf energy sites. Strains persist from Israeli operations in Lebanon—excluded from the deal—proxy militia activity, and disputes over Iran's 10-point peace framework versus U.S. demands on nuclear uranium stockpiles and sanctions. Upcoming Vice President Vance-led negotiations and Islamabad talks could extend de-escalation or trigger resumption by late April, reflecting high uncertainty in defining a permanent end to hostilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
Market Opened: Mar 24, 2026, 1:49 PM ET
Volume
$33,353,508End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 1:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.A fragile two-week ceasefire between the United States, Israel, and Iran, agreed on April 8, 2026, has held without direct fire exchanges since then, driving trader caution amid partial reopening of the Strait of Hormuz for shipping. This pause follows over 40 days of intense escalation since U.S.-Israeli strikes began on February 28 targeting Iranian missiles, air defenses, and infrastructure, with Iranian retaliatory missile barrages on Israel and Gulf energy sites. Strains persist from Israeli operations in Lebanon—excluded from the deal—proxy militia activity, and disputes over Iran's 10-point peace framework versus U.S. demands on nuclear uranium stockpiles and sanctions. Upcoming Vice President Vance-led negotiations and Islamabad talks could extend de-escalation or trigger resumption by late April, reflecting high uncertainty in defining a permanent end to hostilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
Volume
$33,353,508End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 1:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A fragile two-week ceasefire between the United States, Israel, and Iran, agreed on April 8, 2026, has held without direct fire exchanges since then, driving trader caution amid partial reopening of the Strait of Hormuz for shipping. This pause follows over 40 days of intense escalation since U.S.-Israeli strikes began on February 28 targeting Iranian missiles, air defenses, and infrastructure, with Iranian retaliatory missile barrages on Israel and Gulf energy sites. Strains persist from Israeli operations in Lebanon—excluded from the deal—proxy militia activity, and disputes over Iran's 10-point peace framework versus U.S. demands on nuclear uranium stockpiles and sanctions. Upcoming Vice President Vance-led negotiations and Islamabad talks could extend de-escalation or trigger resumption by late April, reflecting high uncertainty in defining a permanent end to hostilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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