US-Iran ceasefire negotiations kicked off April 11 in Islamabad, Pakistan, brokered by Pakistani officials after a conditional two-week truce agreed April 7, halting US and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian infrastructure that began February 28. Iran reopened the Strait of Hormuz for safe passage, but tensions persist over preconditions like sanctions relief, reparations, US base withdrawals, and Tehran's uranium enrichment amid reports of potential Chinese air defense shipments. No formal congressional war declaration has materialized—relying instead on executive actions and prior authorizations—despite Senate votes sustaining strikes. Traders focus on talks' success before April 21 deadline, with historical precedent favoring de-escalation over Article I declarations last seen in World War II.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill the US officially declare war on Iran by...?
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?
$5,869,079 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
April 30
1%
December 31
8%
$5,869,079 Vol.
April 30
$943,210 Vol.
1%
December 31
$374,712 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.US-Iran ceasefire negotiations kicked off April 11 in Islamabad, Pakistan, brokered by Pakistani officials after a conditional two-week truce agreed April 7, halting US and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian infrastructure that began February 28. Iran reopened the Strait of Hormuz for safe passage, but tensions persist over preconditions like sanctions relief, reparations, US base withdrawals, and Tehran's uranium enrichment amid reports of potential Chinese air defense shipments. No formal congressional war declaration has materialized—relying instead on executive actions and prior authorizations—despite Senate votes sustaining strikes. Traders focus on talks' success before April 21 deadline, with historical precedent favoring de-escalation over Article I declarations last seen in World War II.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 24, 2026, 2:56 PM ET
Volume
$5,869,079End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 2:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.US-Iran ceasefire negotiations kicked off April 11 in Islamabad, Pakistan, brokered by Pakistani officials after a conditional two-week truce agreed April 7, halting US and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian infrastructure that began February 28. Iran reopened the Strait of Hormuz for safe passage, but tensions persist over preconditions like sanctions relief, reparations, US base withdrawals, and Tehran's uranium enrichment amid reports of potential Chinese air defense shipments. No formal congressional war declaration has materialized—relying instead on executive actions and prior authorizations—despite Senate votes sustaining strikes. Traders focus on talks' success before April 21 deadline, with historical precedent favoring de-escalation over Article I declarations last seen in World War II.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$5,869,079End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 2:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US-Iran ceasefire negotiations kicked off April 11 in Islamabad, Pakistan, brokered by Pakistani officials after a conditional two-week truce agreed April 7, halting US and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian infrastructure that began February 28. Iran reopened the Strait of Hormuz for safe passage, but tensions persist over preconditions like sanctions relief, reparations, US base withdrawals, and Tehran's uranium enrichment amid reports of potential Chinese air defense shipments. No formal congressional war declaration has materialized—relying instead on executive actions and prior authorizations—despite Senate votes sustaining strikes. Traders focus on talks' success before April 21 deadline, with historical precedent favoring de-escalation over Article I declarations last seen in World War II.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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