Trader consensus reflects a 79% implied probability for no country expelling a U.S. ambassador by December 31, driven by the absence of any verified diplomatic breakdowns leading to such action despite recent tensions. In early April, South Africa summoned U.S. Ambassador Leo Brent Bozell III over undiplomatic remarks on local politics, prompting opposition calls for his expulsion, but the matter de-escalated with an apology and no further steps. France restricted Ambassador Charles Kushner's access to officials after a no-show but stopped short of declaring him persona non grata. Amid U.S.-Iran escalations in March—including IRGC offers of Strait of Hormuz passage to nations expelling U.S. envoys—no country acted, while the U.S. instead expelled Iranian diplomats and evacuated its own personnel. Historical rarity of ambassador expulsions, requiring severe bilateral ruptures, underpins the low risk assessment ahead of year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus reflects a 79% implied probability for no country expelling a U.S. ambassador by December 31, driven by the absence of any verified diplomatic breakdowns leading to such action despite recent tensions. In early April, South Africa summoned U.S. Ambassador Leo Brent Bozell III over undiplomatic remarks on local politics, prompting opposition calls for his expulsion, but the matter de-escalated with an apology and no further steps. France restricted Ambassador Charles Kushner's access to officials after a no-show but stopped short of declaring him persona non grata. Amid U.S.-Iran escalations in March—including IRGC offers of Strait of Hormuz passage to nations expelling U.S. envoys—no country acted, while the U.S. instead expelled Iranian diplomats and evacuated its own personnel. Historical rarity of ambassador expulsions, requiring severe bilateral ruptures, underpins the low risk assessment ahead of year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ET
Volume
$6,112End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus reflects a 79% implied probability for no country expelling a U.S. ambassador by December 31, driven by the absence of any verified diplomatic breakdowns leading to such action despite recent tensions. In early April, South Africa summoned U.S. Ambassador Leo Brent Bozell III over undiplomatic remarks on local politics, prompting opposition calls for his expulsion, but the matter de-escalated with an apology and no further steps. France restricted Ambassador Charles Kushner's access to officials after a no-show but stopped short of declaring him persona non grata. Amid U.S.-Iran escalations in March—including IRGC offers of Strait of Hormuz passage to nations expelling U.S. envoys—no country acted, while the U.S. instead expelled Iranian diplomats and evacuated its own personnel. Historical rarity of ambassador expulsions, requiring severe bilateral ruptures, underpins the low risk assessment ahead of year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$6,112End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects a 79% implied probability for no country expelling a U.S. ambassador by December 31, driven by the absence of any verified diplomatic breakdowns leading to such action despite recent tensions. In early April, South Africa summoned U.S. Ambassador Leo Brent Bozell III over undiplomatic remarks on local politics, prompting opposition calls for his expulsion, but the matter de-escalated with an apology and no further steps. France restricted Ambassador Charles Kushner's access to officials after a no-show but stopped short of declaring him persona non grata. Amid U.S.-Iran escalations in March—including IRGC offers of Strait of Hormuz passage to nations expelling U.S. envoys—no country acted, while the U.S. instead expelled Iranian diplomats and evacuated its own personnel. Historical rarity of ambassador expulsions, requiring severe bilateral ruptures, underpins the low risk assessment ahead of year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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