Trader consensus prices "No" at 93.5¢ on President Trump's resignation by December 31, 2026, reflecting the absence of any official statements, impeachment proceedings, or credible reports indicating his intent to step down midway through his second term ending in 2029. Despite Democratic strategist James Carville's March prediction of a post-midterm resignation amid congressional frustration and Gavin Newsom's similar claims tying it to potential House control in November 2026, no substantive pressures have materialized in recent weeks. High administration turnover—including the March resignation of National Counterterrorism Center Director Joe Kent over Iran policy, which Trump dismissed—remains typical of his tenure, while ongoing executive actions like federal workforce cuts underscore continuity rather than exit signals. Midterm outcomes represent the primary near-term risk, though historical incumbency resilience tempers expectations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$431,570 Vol.
$431,570 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$431,570 Vol.
$431,570 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus prices "No" at 93.5¢ on President Trump's resignation by December 31, 2026, reflecting the absence of any official statements, impeachment proceedings, or credible reports indicating his intent to step down midway through his second term ending in 2029. Despite Democratic strategist James Carville's March prediction of a post-midterm resignation amid congressional frustration and Gavin Newsom's similar claims tying it to potential House control in November 2026, no substantive pressures have materialized in recent weeks. High administration turnover—including the March resignation of National Counterterrorism Center Director Joe Kent over Iran policy, which Trump dismissed—remains typical of his tenure, while ongoing executive actions like federal workforce cuts underscore continuity rather than exit signals. Midterm outcomes represent the primary near-term risk, though historical incumbency resilience tempers expectations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 25, 2025, 2:47 PM ET
Volume
$431,570End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 25, 2025, 2:47 PM ETResolver
0x157Ce2d67...This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus prices "No" at 93.5¢ on President Trump's resignation by December 31, 2026, reflecting the absence of any official statements, impeachment proceedings, or credible reports indicating his intent to step down midway through his second term ending in 2029. Despite Democratic strategist James Carville's March prediction of a post-midterm resignation amid congressional frustration and Gavin Newsom's similar claims tying it to potential House control in November 2026, no substantive pressures have materialized in recent weeks. High administration turnover—including the March resignation of National Counterterrorism Center Director Joe Kent over Iran policy, which Trump dismissed—remains typical of his tenure, while ongoing executive actions like federal workforce cuts underscore continuity rather than exit signals. Midterm outcomes represent the primary near-term risk, though historical incumbency resilience tempers expectations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$431,570End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 25, 2025, 2:47 PM ETResolver
0x157Ce2d67...Trader consensus prices "No" at 93.5¢ on President Trump's resignation by December 31, 2026, reflecting the absence of any official statements, impeachment proceedings, or credible reports indicating his intent to step down midway through his second term ending in 2029. Despite Democratic strategist James Carville's March prediction of a post-midterm resignation amid congressional frustration and Gavin Newsom's similar claims tying it to potential House control in November 2026, no substantive pressures have materialized in recent weeks. High administration turnover—including the March resignation of National Counterterrorism Center Director Joe Kent over Iran policy, which Trump dismissed—remains typical of his tenure, while ongoing executive actions like federal workforce cuts underscore continuity rather than exit signals. Midterm outcomes represent the primary near-term risk, though historical incumbency resilience tempers expectations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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