A fragile two-week ceasefire announced April 7, 2026—suspending US and Israeli airstrikes on Iran in exchange for Tehran halting fire and reopening the Strait of Hormuz—has shaped trader consensus pricing an end to military action by May 31 at 93% implied probability, following six weeks of intense operations since February 28 that targeted Iranian missile sites, nuclear facilities, and leadership. Upcoming high-stakes negotiations in Islamabad, Pakistan, this weekend offer de-escalation potential amid Trump's six-week war deadline today, but recent US strikes on Kharg Island, Gulf missile interceptions, and Hezbollah rocket fire signal persistent risks of breakdown, renewed escalation, or proxy attacks that could prolong the conflict.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMilitary action against Iran ends by...?
Military action against Iran ends by...?
$610,421 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
April 15
98%
April 30
99%
May 31
99%
June 30
99%
$610,421 Vol.
April 15
$105,860 Vol.
98%
April 30
$112,843 Vol.
99%
May 31
$52,544 Vol.
99%
June 30
$90,951 Vol.
99%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.A fragile two-week ceasefire announced April 7, 2026—suspending US and Israeli airstrikes on Iran in exchange for Tehran halting fire and reopening the Strait of Hormuz—has shaped trader consensus pricing an end to military action by May 31 at 93% implied probability, following six weeks of intense operations since February 28 that targeted Iranian missile sites, nuclear facilities, and leadership. Upcoming high-stakes negotiations in Islamabad, Pakistan, this weekend offer de-escalation potential amid Trump's six-week war deadline today, but recent US strikes on Kharg Island, Gulf missile interceptions, and Hezbollah rocket fire signal persistent risks of breakdown, renewed escalation, or proxy attacks that could prolong the conflict.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 25, 2026, 2:03 PM ET
Volume
$610,421End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 25, 2026, 2:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.A fragile two-week ceasefire announced April 7, 2026—suspending US and Israeli airstrikes on Iran in exchange for Tehran halting fire and reopening the Strait of Hormuz—has shaped trader consensus pricing an end to military action by May 31 at 93% implied probability, following six weeks of intense operations since February 28 that targeted Iranian missile sites, nuclear facilities, and leadership. Upcoming high-stakes negotiations in Islamabad, Pakistan, this weekend offer de-escalation potential amid Trump's six-week war deadline today, but recent US strikes on Kharg Island, Gulf missile interceptions, and Hezbollah rocket fire signal persistent risks of breakdown, renewed escalation, or proxy attacks that could prolong the conflict.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$610,421End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 25, 2026, 2:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A fragile two-week ceasefire announced April 7, 2026—suspending US and Israeli airstrikes on Iran in exchange for Tehran halting fire and reopening the Strait of Hormuz—has shaped trader consensus pricing an end to military action by May 31 at 93% implied probability, following six weeks of intense operations since February 28 that targeted Iranian missile sites, nuclear facilities, and leadership. Upcoming high-stakes negotiations in Islamabad, Pakistan, this weekend offer de-escalation potential amid Trump's six-week war deadline today, but recent US strikes on Kharg Island, Gulf missile interceptions, and Hezbollah rocket fire signal persistent risks of breakdown, renewed escalation, or proxy attacks that could prolong the conflict.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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