Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 77% implied probability against Turkey announcing a constitutional referendum by December 31, 2026, driven by the absence of official action four months into the year despite prior momentum. The AKP-led Milli Dayanisma, Kardeslik ve Demokrasi Komisyonu released its report on February 18, 2026, recommending legislative tweaks like infaz regime reforms starting in April, but no parliamentary votes or draft toward a full new constitution have advanced. President Erdogan's AKP and ally MHP hold roughly 318 seats in the 600-member Grand National Assembly, falling short of the 360 needed to trigger a referendum without broader coalitions amid opposition from nationalists wary of federalism risks or Kurdish reintegration provisions. Recent health rumors and competing priorities, including regional tensions, further dampen prospects for timely progress.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
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Dec 31, 2026
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Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 77% implied probability against Turkey announcing a constitutional referendum by December 31, 2026, driven by the absence of official action four months into the year despite prior momentum. The AKP-led Milli Dayanisma, Kardeslik ve Demokrasi Komisyonu released its report on February 18, 2026, recommending legislative tweaks like infaz regime reforms starting in April, but no parliamentary votes or draft toward a full new constitution have advanced. President Erdogan's AKP and ally MHP hold roughly 318 seats in the 600-member Grand National Assembly, falling short of the 360 needed to trigger a referendum without broader coalitions amid opposition from nationalists wary of federalism risks or Kurdish reintegration provisions. Recent health rumors and competing priorities, including regional tensions, further dampen prospects for timely progress.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Apr 1, 2026, 4:01 PM ET
Volume
$191End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 1, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 77% implied probability against Turkey announcing a constitutional referendum by December 31, 2026, driven by the absence of official action four months into the year despite prior momentum. The AKP-led Milli Dayanisma, Kardeslik ve Demokrasi Komisyonu released its report on February 18, 2026, recommending legislative tweaks like infaz regime reforms starting in April, but no parliamentary votes or draft toward a full new constitution have advanced. President Erdogan's AKP and ally MHP hold roughly 318 seats in the 600-member Grand National Assembly, falling short of the 360 needed to trigger a referendum without broader coalitions amid opposition from nationalists wary of federalism risks or Kurdish reintegration provisions. Recent health rumors and competing priorities, including regional tensions, further dampen prospects for timely progress.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$191End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 1, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 77% implied probability against Turkey announcing a constitutional referendum by December 31, 2026, driven by the absence of official action four months into the year despite prior momentum. The AKP-led Milli Dayanisma, Kardeslik ve Demokrasi Komisyonu released its report on February 18, 2026, recommending legislative tweaks like infaz regime reforms starting in April, but no parliamentary votes or draft toward a full new constitution have advanced. President Erdogan's AKP and ally MHP hold roughly 318 seats in the 600-member Grand National Assembly, falling short of the 360 needed to trigger a referendum without broader coalitions amid opposition from nationalists wary of federalism risks or Kurdish reintegration provisions. Recent health rumors and competing priorities, including regional tensions, further dampen prospects for timely progress.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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