Recent polls ahead of Bulgaria's April 19 snap parliamentary election, the eighth since 2021 under proportional representation, show Progressive Bulgaria (PB) leading GERB-SDS by 8-15 points, driving trader consensus toward PB victory margins of 5-10% (54.5%) or 10-15% (30.5%). A Sova Harris survey on April 9 pegged PB at 34% versus GERB-SDS at 19%, while Alpha Research and Gallup polls from early April indicated leads of 10% and 5%, respectively, reflecting PB's surge fueled by former President Rumen Radev's candidacy consolidating anti-establishment support amid voter fatigue. Fragmentation favors no outright majority, keeping narrower margins favored over blowouts, with GERB-SDS victory at just 5.8% amid steady polling trends. Final campaign dynamics and turnout could narrow the gap before resolution post-election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedPB 5-10% 55%
PB 10-15% 30%
PB 15-20% 9%
PB 20%+ 6.7%
$26,438 Vol.
$26,438 Vol.
Apr 19, 2026
PB 20%+
7%
PB 15-20%
9%
PB 10-15%
30%
PB 5-10%
55%
PB <5%
2%
GERB-SDS Victory
6%
Other
1%
PB 5-10% 55%
PB 10-15% 30%
PB 15-20% 9%
PB 20%+ 6.7%
$26,438 Vol.
$26,438 Vol.
Apr 19, 2026
PB 20%+
$323 Vol.
7%
PB 15-20%
$10,891 Vol.
9%
PB 10-15%
$10,496 Vol.
30%
PB 5-10%
$4,397 Vol.
55%
PB <5%
$189 Vol.
2%
GERB-SDS Victory
$83 Vol.
6%
Other
$59 Vol.
1%
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Bulgaria on April 19, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of valid votes in this election.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the political party that wins the most valid votes nationwide and the political party that wins the second-most valid votes nationwide. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If two or more parties tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between the two parties listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed party and an unlisted party, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed party. If the tie is between two or more unlisted parties, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted party wins the most valid votes in this election, or the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).Recent polls ahead of Bulgaria's April 19 snap parliamentary election, the eighth since 2021 under proportional representation, show Progressive Bulgaria (PB) leading GERB-SDS by 8-15 points, driving trader consensus toward PB victory margins of 5-10% (54.5%) or 10-15% (30.5%). A Sova Harris survey on April 9 pegged PB at 34% versus GERB-SDS at 19%, while Alpha Research and Gallup polls from early April indicated leads of 10% and 5%, respectively, reflecting PB's surge fueled by former President Rumen Radev's candidacy consolidating anti-establishment support amid voter fatigue. Fragmentation favors no outright majority, keeping narrower margins favored over blowouts, with GERB-SDS victory at just 5.8% amid steady polling trends. Final campaign dynamics and turnout could narrow the gap before resolution post-election.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Bulgaria on April 19, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of valid votes in this election.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the political party that wins the most valid votes nationwide and the political party that wins the second-most valid votes nationwide. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If two or more parties tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between the two parties listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed party and an unlisted party, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed party. If the tie is between two or more unlisted parties, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted party wins the most valid votes in this election, or the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of valid votes in this election.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the political party that wins the most valid votes nationwide and the political party that wins the second-most valid votes nationwide. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If two or more parties tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between the two parties listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed party and an unlisted party, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed party. If the tie is between two or more unlisted parties, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted party wins the most valid votes in this election, or the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).
Market Opened: Mar 27, 2026, 2:02 PM ET
Volume
$26,438End Date
Apr 19, 2026Market Opened
Mar 27, 2026, 2:02 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Bulgaria on April 19, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of valid votes in this election.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the political party that wins the most valid votes nationwide and the political party that wins the second-most valid votes nationwide. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If two or more parties tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between the two parties listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed party and an unlisted party, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed party. If the tie is between two or more unlisted parties, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted party wins the most valid votes in this election, or the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).Recent polls ahead of Bulgaria's April 19 snap parliamentary election, the eighth since 2021 under proportional representation, show Progressive Bulgaria (PB) leading GERB-SDS by 8-15 points, driving trader consensus toward PB victory margins of 5-10% (54.5%) or 10-15% (30.5%). A Sova Harris survey on April 9 pegged PB at 34% versus GERB-SDS at 19%, while Alpha Research and Gallup polls from early April indicated leads of 10% and 5%, respectively, reflecting PB's surge fueled by former President Rumen Radev's candidacy consolidating anti-establishment support amid voter fatigue. Fragmentation favors no outright majority, keeping narrower margins favored over blowouts, with GERB-SDS victory at just 5.8% amid steady polling trends. Final campaign dynamics and turnout could narrow the gap before resolution post-election.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Bulgaria on April 19, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of valid votes in this election.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the political party that wins the most valid votes nationwide and the political party that wins the second-most valid votes nationwide. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If two or more parties tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between the two parties listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed party and an unlisted party, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed party. If the tie is between two or more unlisted parties, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted party wins the most valid votes in this election, or the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of valid votes in this election.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the political party that wins the most valid votes nationwide and the political party that wins the second-most valid votes nationwide. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If two or more parties tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between the two parties listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed party and an unlisted party, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed party. If the tie is between two or more unlisted parties, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted party wins the most valid votes in this election, or the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).
Volume
$26,438End Date
Apr 19, 2026Market Opened
Mar 27, 2026, 2:02 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls ahead of Bulgaria's April 19 snap parliamentary election, the eighth since 2021 under proportional representation, show Progressive Bulgaria (PB) leading GERB-SDS by 8-15 points, driving trader consensus toward PB victory margins of 5-10% (54.5%) or 10-15% (30.5%). A Sova Harris survey on April 9 pegged PB at 34% versus GERB-SDS at 19%, while Alpha Research and Gallup polls from early April indicated leads of 10% and 5%, respectively, reflecting PB's surge fueled by former President Rumen Radev's candidacy consolidating anti-establishment support amid voter fatigue. Fragmentation favors no outright majority, keeping narrower margins favored over blowouts, with GERB-SDS victory at just 5.8% amid steady polling trends. Final campaign dynamics and turnout could narrow the gap before resolution post-election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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