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Elections·Global Elections

Liberals Up or Down for Canada Seats Polls this week?

Market icon
Elections·Global Elections

Liberals Up or Down for Canada Seats Polls this week?

Mar 29

Mar 29

Up

51% chance
Polymarket

$29 Vol.

Up

51% chance
Polymarket

$29 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Up" if the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC)'s 338Canada Seat Projection is higher on April 5, 2026, than on March 29, 2026. This market will resolve to "Down" if the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC)'s 338Canada Seat Projection is higher on March 29, 2026, than on April 5, 2026. This market will resolve to 50-50 if the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC)'s 338Canada Seat Projection is the same on both dates. Confidence intervals will not be considered; only the main seat projection number will be used. If no data point is published for the latter reference date by 11:59 PM ET on the third calendar day after that date, this market will resolve to 50-50. This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying data point has been published. This market will resolve solely based on the seat projections for the specified party on 338Canada Federal Projections (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection). If the website is unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. Note: Only the 338Canada “338Canada Seat Projection” values for the LPC will qualify, regardless of confidence intervals, methodological changes, or projections by other sources.Trader consensus on Polymarket slightly favors "Up" at 51% for Liberal Party of Canada seat projections in 338Canada's model, reflecting a razor-thin contest between March 29 and April 5 updates amid sustained national polling leads of 42-46% for the governing Liberals under Prime Minister Mark Carney. Recent polls like Nanos' rolling tracker through April 3 show Liberal support steady at 46% versus Conservatives at 31%, projecting around 205 seats—well above their current 170 actual seats following Conservative MP Marilyn Gladu's floor-crossing on April 8—yet aggregators noted a minor one-seat dip from prior highs, creating balance. Stability in Ontario and Quebec bolsters projections, but softening in Western polls or new regional data could tip toward "Down"; upcoming by-elections on April 13 may indirectly sway sentiment despite the market's poll-specific resolution.

This market will resolve to "Up" if the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC)'s 338Canada Seat Projection is higher on April 5, 2026, than on March 29, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Down" if the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC)'s 338Canada Seat Projection is higher on March 29, 2026, than on April 5, 2026.

This market will resolve to 50-50 if the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC)'s 338Canada Seat Projection is the same on both dates.

Confidence intervals will not be considered; only the main seat projection number will be used.

If no data point is published for the latter reference date by 11:59 PM ET on the third calendar day after that date, this market will resolve to 50-50.

This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying data point has been published.

This market will resolve solely based on the seat projections for the specified party on 338Canada Federal Projections (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection). If the website is unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again.

Note: Only the 338Canada “338Canada Seat Projection” values for the LPC will qualify, regardless of confidence intervals, methodological changes, or projections by other sources.
Volume
$29
End Date
Mar 29, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 27, 2026, 6:43 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Up" if the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC)'s 338Canada Seat Projection is higher on April 5, 2026, than on March 29, 2026. This market will resolve to "Down" if the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC)'s 338Canada Seat Projection is higher on March 29, 2026, than on April 5, 2026. This market will resolve to 50-50 if the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC)'s 338Canada Seat Projection is the same on both dates. Confidence intervals will not be considered; only the main seat projection number will be used. If no data point is published for the latter reference date by 11:59 PM ET on the third calendar day after that date, this market will resolve to 50-50. This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying data point has been published. This market will resolve solely based on the seat projections for the specified party on 338Canada Federal Projections (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection). If the website is unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. Note: Only the 338Canada “338Canada Seat Projection” values for the LPC will qualify, regardless of confidence intervals, methodological changes, or projections by other sources.
This market will resolve to "Up" if the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC)'s 338Canada Seat Projection is higher on April 5, 2026, than on March 29, 2026. This market will resolve to "Down" if the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC)'s 338Canada Seat Projection is higher on March 29, 2026, than on April 5, 2026. This market will resolve to 50-50 if the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC)'s 338Canada Seat Projection is the same on both dates. Confidence intervals will not be considered; only the main seat projection number will be used. If no data point is published for the latter reference date by 11:59 PM ET on the third calendar day after that date, this market will resolve to 50-50. This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying data point has been published. This market will resolve solely based on the seat projections for the specified party on 338Canada Federal Projections (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection). If the website is unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. Note: Only the 338Canada “338Canada Seat Projection” values for the LPC will qualify, regardless of confidence intervals, methodological changes, or projections by other sources.Trader consensus on Polymarket slightly favors "Up" at 51% for Liberal Party of Canada seat projections in 338Canada's model, reflecting a razor-thin contest between March 29 and April 5 updates amid sustained national polling leads of 42-46% for the governing Liberals under Prime Minister Mark Carney. Recent polls like Nanos' rolling tracker through April 3 show Liberal support steady at 46% versus Conservatives at 31%, projecting around 205 seats—well above their current 170 actual seats following Conservative MP Marilyn Gladu's floor-crossing on April 8—yet aggregators noted a minor one-seat dip from prior highs, creating balance. Stability in Ontario and Quebec bolsters projections, but softening in Western polls or new regional data could tip toward "Down"; upcoming by-elections on April 13 may indirectly sway sentiment despite the market's poll-specific resolution.

This market will resolve to "Up" if the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC)'s 338Canada Seat Projection is higher on April 5, 2026, than on March 29, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Down" if the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC)'s 338Canada Seat Projection is higher on March 29, 2026, than on April 5, 2026.

This market will resolve to 50-50 if the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC)'s 338Canada Seat Projection is the same on both dates.

Confidence intervals will not be considered; only the main seat projection number will be used.

If no data point is published for the latter reference date by 11:59 PM ET on the third calendar day after that date, this market will resolve to 50-50.

This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying data point has been published.

This market will resolve solely based on the seat projections for the specified party on 338Canada Federal Projections (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection). If the website is unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again.

Note: Only the 338Canada “338Canada Seat Projection” values for the LPC will qualify, regardless of confidence intervals, methodological changes, or projections by other sources.
Volume
$29
End Date
Mar 29, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 27, 2026, 6:43 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Up" if the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC)'s 338Canada Seat Projection is higher on April 5, 2026, than on March 29, 2026. This market will resolve to "Down" if the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC)'s 338Canada Seat Projection is higher on March 29, 2026, than on April 5, 2026. This market will resolve to 50-50 if the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC)'s 338Canada Seat Projection is the same on both dates. Confidence intervals will not be considered; only the main seat projection number will be used. If no data point is published for the latter reference date by 11:59 PM ET on the third calendar day after that date, this market will resolve to 50-50. This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying data point has been published. This market will resolve solely based on the seat projections for the specified party on 338Canada Federal Projections (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection). If the website is unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. Note: Only the 338Canada “338Canada Seat Projection” values for the LPC will qualify, regardless of confidence intervals, methodological changes, or projections by other sources.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Liberals Up or Down for Canada Seats Polls this week?" is a daily prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell shares on whether Liberals Up or Down for Canada Seats Polls this week?'s price will finish higher ("Up") or lower ("Down") than its opening price over the daily window specified in the title. The current market probability is 51% for "Up." A price of 51% means the market collectively assigns a 51% chance to that outcome. Prices update in real-time as traders react to live Liberals Up or Down for Canada Seats Polls this week? price movements. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Liberals Up or Down for Canada Seats Polls this week?" is an active short-term market on Polymarket. Trading volume can accumulate quickly as the daily window progresses — jump in early to help set the odds before this window closes.

To trade on "Liberals Up or Down for Canada Seats Polls this week?," decide whether you believe Liberals Up or Down for Canada Seats Polls this week?'s price at noon ET on March 28 will be higher ("Up") or lower ("Down") than Liberals Up or Down for Canada Seats Polls this week?'s price at noon ET on March 27. Buy "Up" if you think the price will rise day-over-day, or "Down" if you think it will fall. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct at resolution, each share pays out $1.00. If incorrect, shares are worth $0.

The current probability for "Liberals Up or Down for Canada Seats Polls this week?" is 51% for "Up," meaning the Polymarket crowd currently assigns a 51% chance that Liberals Up or Down for Canada Seats Polls this week?'s price will finish up over this daily window. These odds update in real-time as traders react to live Liberals Up or Down for Canada Seats Polls this week? price data. Over a full day, odds reflect evolving sentiment as the day's price action unfolds. Check back frequently or trade now before the window closes.

The "Liberals Up or Down for Canada Seats Polls this week?" market resolves based on a comparison of Liberals Up or Down for Canada Seats Polls this week?'s price at noon ET on March 28 versus noon ET on March 27, using Binance LIBERALS/USDT 1-minute candle close prices. If the March 28 noon price is higher, the outcome is "Up"; if lower, "Down"; if equal, the market resolves 50-50. You can review the complete resolution criteria and data source in the "Rules" section on this page.