State Sen. Mayes Middleton's double-digit lead in the March 3 Republican primary and nearly $14 million in self-funding have driven trader consensus to an implied 77.5% probability of victory over U.S. Rep. Chip Roy in the May 26 Texas Attorney General runoff. Aaron Reitz, the eliminated Paxton-endorsed candidate and former top aide, backed Middleton on March 25, consolidating support among establishment conservatives in this low-turnout contest to succeed outgoing AG Ken Paxton. A recent conservative RINOScorus analysis rated Middleton higher (82/100) for Trump loyalty and America First alignment compared to Roy's 75/100, amid attack ads from both sides. An April 8 report questioning Middleton's past development record has not dented his edge, though Roy's fiscal hawkishness and border security profile could mobilize late support via early voting.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMayes Middleton
78%
Chip Roy
26%
Mayes Middleton
78%
Chip Roy
26%
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Texas Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Market Opened: Mar 4, 2026, 3:48 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Texas Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...State Sen. Mayes Middleton's double-digit lead in the March 3 Republican primary and nearly $14 million in self-funding have driven trader consensus to an implied 77.5% probability of victory over U.S. Rep. Chip Roy in the May 26 Texas Attorney General runoff. Aaron Reitz, the eliminated Paxton-endorsed candidate and former top aide, backed Middleton on March 25, consolidating support among establishment conservatives in this low-turnout contest to succeed outgoing AG Ken Paxton. A recent conservative RINOScorus analysis rated Middleton higher (82/100) for Trump loyalty and America First alignment compared to Roy's 75/100, amid attack ads from both sides. An April 8 report questioning Middleton's past development record has not dented his edge, though Roy's fiscal hawkishness and border security profile could mobilize late support via early voting.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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