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Politics·Mayor

Los Angeles Mayoral Election

Market icon
Politics·Mayor

Los Angeles Mayoral Election

Nithya Raman 47%

Karen Bass 31%

Spencer Pratt 14%

Rae Huang 7.4%

Polymarket

$860,162 Vol.

Nithya Raman 47%

Karen Bass 31%

Spencer Pratt 14%

Rae Huang 7.4%

Polymarket

$860,162 Vol.

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Nithya Raman

$12,942 Vol.

47%

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Karen Bass

$27,985 Vol.

31%

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Spencer Pratt

$102,115 Vol.

14%

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Rae Huang

$42,984 Vol.

7%

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Adam Miller

$88,503 Vol.

1%

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Asaad Alnajjar

$42,289 Vol.

1%

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Austin Beutner

$9,613 Vol.

<1%

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Gina Viola

$79,624 Vol.

<1%

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Monica Rodriguez

$5,876 Vol.

<1%

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Rick Caruso

$428,930 Vol.

<1%

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Lindsey Horvath

$19,300 Vol.

<1%

The 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins the election. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the City of Los Angeles.In the closely contested Los Angeles mayoral nonpartisan primary set for June 2, 2026—with top two candidates advancing to November if no majority—trader consensus on Polymarket favors City Councilmember Nithya Raman at 47%, reflecting her late-entry progressive challenge to incumbent Mayor Karen Bass from the left on homelessness and housing, bolstered by a controversial March 30 Loyola Marymount University poll showing Raman leading countywide at 32.5% amid high undecideds. Bass trails at 31% despite leading recent city-focused polls like UCLA Luskin's April 3 survey (25% support, 40% undecided, over 50% unfavorable views), signaling vulnerability to turnout dynamics. Reality TV personality Spencer Pratt's 14% share stems from wildfire victim activism buzz, tempered by fresh April residency eligibility questions after his post-Palisades Fire move.

The 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins the election.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the City of Los Angeles.
Volume
$860,162
End Date
Jun 2, 2026
Market Opened
Oct 9, 2025, 4:35 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
The 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins the election. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the City of Los Angeles.
The 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins the election. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the City of Los Angeles.In the closely contested Los Angeles mayoral nonpartisan primary set for June 2, 2026—with top two candidates advancing to November if no majority—trader consensus on Polymarket favors City Councilmember Nithya Raman at 47%, reflecting her late-entry progressive challenge to incumbent Mayor Karen Bass from the left on homelessness and housing, bolstered by a controversial March 30 Loyola Marymount University poll showing Raman leading countywide at 32.5% amid high undecideds. Bass trails at 31% despite leading recent city-focused polls like UCLA Luskin's April 3 survey (25% support, 40% undecided, over 50% unfavorable views), signaling vulnerability to turnout dynamics. Reality TV personality Spencer Pratt's 14% share stems from wildfire victim activism buzz, tempered by fresh April residency eligibility questions after his post-Palisades Fire move.

The 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins the election.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the City of Los Angeles.
Volume
$860,162
End Date
Jun 2, 2026
Market Opened
Oct 9, 2025, 4:35 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
The 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins the election. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the City of Los Angeles.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Los Angeles Mayoral Election" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Nithya Raman" at 47%, followed by "Karen Bass" at 31%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 47¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 47% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Los Angeles Mayoral Election" has generated $860.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Oct 9, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Los Angeles Mayoral Election," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Los Angeles Mayoral Election" is "Nithya Raman" at 47%, meaning the market assigns a 47% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Karen Bass" at 31%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Los Angeles Mayoral Election" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.