Trader consensus favors Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton defeating incumbent Senator John Cornyn by 9% or more in the May 26 Republican primary runoff, reflecting post-March 3 primary polls showing Paxton ahead 53%-37% as he consolidates support from third-place finisher Wesley Hunt's MAGA-aligned voters. Paxton's momentum stems from CPAC's March 30 endorsement and appeal to the GOP base criticizing Cornyn as establishment despite the senator's fundraising edge and institutional backing. President Trump's refusal to endorse either candidate as of early April keeps the race fluid, but low-turnout runoffs historically reward energized insurgents; a late Trump nod or establishment consolidation could narrow Paxton's implied path to victory.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedPaxton 9%+ 31.4%
Paxton 6–9% 14%
Cornyn 9%+ 13%
Cornyn <3% 12.2%
$50,020 Vol.
$50,020 Vol.
May 25, 2026
Paxton 9%+
31%
Paxton 6–9%
14%
Paxton 3–6%
11%
Paxton <3%
10%
Cornyn <3%
12%
Cornyn 3–6%
6%
Cornyn 6–9%
3%
Cornyn 9%+
13%
Paxton 9%+ 31.4%
Paxton 6–9% 14%
Cornyn 9%+ 13%
Cornyn <3% 12.2%
$50,020 Vol.
$50,020 Vol.
May 25, 2026
Paxton 9%+
$9,676 Vol.
31%
Paxton 6–9%
$5,461 Vol.
14%
Paxton 3–6%
$4,757 Vol.
11%
Paxton <3%
$6,343 Vol.
10%
Cornyn <3%
$3,867 Vol.
12%
Cornyn 3–6%
$4,330 Vol.
6%
Cornyn 6–9%
$4,962 Vol.
3%
Cornyn 9%+
$10,624 Vol.
13%
The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Trader consensus favors Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton defeating incumbent Senator John Cornyn by 9% or more in the May 26 Republican primary runoff, reflecting post-March 3 primary polls showing Paxton ahead 53%-37% as he consolidates support from third-place finisher Wesley Hunt's MAGA-aligned voters. Paxton's momentum stems from CPAC's March 30 endorsement and appeal to the GOP base criticizing Cornyn as establishment despite the senator's fundraising edge and institutional backing. President Trump's refusal to endorse either candidate as of early April keeps the race fluid, but low-turnout runoffs historically reward energized insurgents; a late Trump nod or establishment consolidation could narrow Paxton's implied path to victory.
The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Market Opened: Mar 4, 2026, 12:46 PM ET
Volume
$50,020End Date
May 25, 2026Market Opened
Mar 4, 2026, 12:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Trader consensus favors Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton defeating incumbent Senator John Cornyn by 9% or more in the May 26 Republican primary runoff, reflecting post-March 3 primary polls showing Paxton ahead 53%-37% as he consolidates support from third-place finisher Wesley Hunt's MAGA-aligned voters. Paxton's momentum stems from CPAC's March 30 endorsement and appeal to the GOP base criticizing Cornyn as establishment despite the senator's fundraising edge and institutional backing. President Trump's refusal to endorse either candidate as of early April keeps the race fluid, but low-turnout runoffs historically reward energized insurgents; a late Trump nod or establishment consolidation could narrow Paxton's implied path to victory.
The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volume
$50,020End Date
May 25, 2026Market Opened
Mar 4, 2026, 12:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton defeating incumbent Senator John Cornyn by 9% or more in the May 26 Republican primary runoff, reflecting post-March 3 primary polls showing Paxton ahead 53%-37% as he consolidates support from third-place finisher Wesley Hunt's MAGA-aligned voters. Paxton's momentum stems from CPAC's March 30 endorsement and appeal to the GOP base criticizing Cornyn as establishment despite the senator's fundraising edge and institutional backing. President Trump's refusal to endorse either candidate as of early April keeps the race fluid, but low-turnout runoffs historically reward energized insurgents; a late Trump nod or establishment consolidation could narrow Paxton's implied path to victory.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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