Market icon
Elections·Primaries

CA-04 Primary Winners

Market icon
Elections·Primaries

CA-04 Primary Winners

$20,045 Vol.

Jun 2, 2026
Polymarket

$20,045 Vol.

Polymarket

Mike Thompson

$6,439 Vol.

96%

Eric Jones

$3,848 Vol.

96%

John Wesley Tyler

$554 Vol.

21%

Trevor Merrell

$6,280 Vol.

15%

Heath Fulkerson

$0 Vol.

8%

Laurie MacKenzie

$629 Vol.

7%

Sharon Brown

$1,588 Vol.

6%

Mandy Ghusar

$708 Vol.

6%

This market will resolve according to the two candidates who receive the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Rep. Mike Thompson (D) and Democratic challenger Eric Jones dominate trader sentiment for California's 4th Congressional District top-two primary on June 2, driven by their superior fundraising—each raising over $2 million through late 2025, far outpacing Republicans like Raymond Riehle and Sharon Brown—and strong endorsements, with Thompson backed by the California Democratic Party and Jones by progressive group Our Revolution. The district's redrawn boundaries under Proposition 50, approved November 2025, narrow its Democratic lean to D+17 per Cook PVI, heightening primary competition amid a fragmented Republican field of six candidates and one independent. No public polls exist, leaving assessments reliant on cash-on-hand advantages and incumbency in this Solid Democratic seat, with vote-splitting risks in the nonpartisan ballot determining general election matchups.

This market will resolve according to the two candidates who receive the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026.

If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.

Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$20,045
End Date
Jun 2, 2026
Market Opened
Feb 26, 2026, 5:37 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve according to the two candidates who receive the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the two candidates who receive the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Rep. Mike Thompson (D) and Democratic challenger Eric Jones dominate trader sentiment for California's 4th Congressional District top-two primary on June 2, driven by their superior fundraising—each raising over $2 million through late 2025, far outpacing Republicans like Raymond Riehle and Sharon Brown—and strong endorsements, with Thompson backed by the California Democratic Party and Jones by progressive group Our Revolution. The district's redrawn boundaries under Proposition 50, approved November 2025, narrow its Democratic lean to D+17 per Cook PVI, heightening primary competition amid a fragmented Republican field of six candidates and one independent. No public polls exist, leaving assessments reliant on cash-on-hand advantages and incumbency in this Solid Democratic seat, with vote-splitting risks in the nonpartisan ballot determining general election matchups.

This market will resolve according to the two candidates who receive the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026.

If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.

Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$20,045
End Date
Jun 2, 2026
Market Opened
Feb 26, 2026, 5:37 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve according to the two candidates who receive the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"CA-04 Primary Winners" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 8 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Mike Thompson" at 96%, followed by "Eric Jones" at 96%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 96¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 96% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "CA-04 Primary Winners" has generated $20K in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 26, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "CA-04 Primary Winners," browse the 8 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "CA-04 Primary Winners" is "Mike Thompson" at 96%, meaning the market assigns a 96% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Eric Jones" at 96%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "CA-04 Primary Winners" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.